The devil is in the details and the highlight of the latest survey carried out by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli is not so much what the main numbers say, the voting intention, but rather the secondary ones, those who, in detail, predict what they would do in At this moment, the voters that each party had in the last elections, in which directions the transfers of voters are taking place or who would choose to abstain.
In that sense, the most eloquent thing about the first survey of this 2025 is that, with respect to the 2023 elections, up to 35% of the people who previously supported Pedro Sanchez Today they would prefer to stay home. And the main asset that the President of the Government has to resist in power is the mobilization of his electorate, which he constantly agitates with a star wild card: the fear of “the extreme right.” To keep his bases tense, the socialist leader will focus his entire agenda on the fiftieth anniversary of Franco’s death.
Waiting to see if the dictator’s key works, the outlook looks bleak for the left. If there were elections today, the final photo would be the following: the PP would achieve the podium again, with more advantage than the previous time: 149 seats for Alberto Núñez Feijóo that, now, he would have no problem saving an investiture in the Lower House. According to estimates, with the support of Vox – which would amount to 43 deputies, exactly ten more than it has now – the opposition leader would achieve a comfortable sum to become president of the Government. The two parties, in total, would garner 192 banquets in the Chamber, 22 more than the current ones and 14 above the majority.
In the left bloc, the bleeding would be total: the two parties that support the Government coalition would leave more than 2.5 million voters behind. The PSOE would fall back to 116 deputies, although the debacle would come, above all, from the collapse of the platform with which it participated. Yolanda Diaz to the polls, which would barely achieve 8 representatives. The fall of this formation is explained, among many other factors, by the open war with Podemos, which would return alone with about 5 seats. Although the distance between Podemos and Sumar is increasingly narrowing: only 9 tenths for the by-pass to occur.
Little by little, the legislature is heading towards the equator. And the main trend of the third already consumed has been scandals. First the politicians, then the judicial ones. Since Sánchez’s investiture, events such as the amnesty for those responsible for the process, the separatist quota, the ‘Koldo case’, the investigation of Begoña Gómez, the indictment of the State Attorney General, that of José Luis Ábalos have not stopped occurring. ; that take their toll on the Government parties and make the opposition parties fat. And the DANA crisis in the Valencian Community has undermined the PP due to the controversial management of Carlos Mazón. In the popular leadership, however, they assure that if there is wear and tear it is shared with the PSOE and that the one who is fishing in the tides is Santiago Abascal.
Feijóo’s strategy bears fruit
In any case, the transfer of votes between parties reflects that what Vox grows at the expense of the PP, the PP recovers at the expense of the PSOE. In fact, a high percentage of socialist voters (8.5%) would now flee to the popular ranks, which reaffirms Feijóo in his double strategy: on the one hand, the reaction to the excesses of the Executive, and, on the other, a programmatic agenda with social measures that manage to convince those who opted for the left in previous electoral events.
And if Sánchez’s political plans to emerge victorious in a hypothetical election involve vampirizing his partners, bad news in Ferraz. From the heavy fall of Sumar, the PSOE does not benefit much. In total, she would remain with 14% of those who once voted for the second vice president and head of Labor, now at war with the Minister of EconomyCarlos Bodydue to the reduction of the working day. A contest that is more about the vice president’s tactics – last Friday Díaz called Corpus a “bad person” – to survive in the media ecosystem than about a fight between colleagues.
Hamalgama survey technical sheet
Universe: Spaniards aged 18 and over.
Sample size: 1,000 interviews
Sampling error: 3.16% for the entire sample and a confidence level of 95.5%.
Work methodology: CATI (Computer Administered Telephone Interview). Mobile and landline telephones owned by individuals.
Sampling procedure: Multistage, stratified by clusters, with selection of the primary sampling units (municipalities) and the final units (individuals) randomly proportional by age and gender.
Stratification: Crossing of the province with the size of the habitat, divided into 4 categories:
1. Less than 2,000 inhabitants.
2. From 2,001 to 10,000 inhabitants
3. From 10,001 to 50,000 inhabitants.
4. More than 50,000 inhabitants.
Field work: December 31, 2024 to January 3, 2025.
Source: www.vozpopuli.com
