Should we be afraid of being disconnected from the Russian network?

Estonia is scheduled to be disconnected from the Russian power grid in February, but could be earlier if politics intervenes. Elering says it is prepared for this. For Estonian businesses, the switchover means increased demand for engineers and network maintenance.

The final decision has been made – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will disconnect from the common power grid with Russia and Belarus (BRELL) in February 2025. In early August, their power system managers will inform Russia and Belarus about this. This step may cause a negative reaction from them.

Estonia has not bought electricity from Russia for many years. “Frequency is very important in the electricity grid,” explains TalTech lecturer Igor Krupensky. “In our region, the frequency chosen is 50 Hz, and it must be stable for all electrical devices to work properly. If the amount of electricity produced by power plants – gas, wind, solar, nuclear – is equal to the amount consumed in the grid, then there will be a constant frequency of 50 Hz, which is what we require for consumers. If, for example, a power plant fails, for example, there is no wind or sun, then the output drops and it needs to be replenished.”

Until June 2022, Russia, ensuring a balance between production and consumption, took the surplus electricity supplied to the grid or compensated for its deficiency. The electricity flow was carried out via border power lines. For this service, Estonian Elering paid Russian Inter RAO.

Since June 2022, the country has not used Russian reserves to balance the system. Now the power systems of the two countries are connected only by frequency, which is currently controlled centrally from Moscow. And the Baltic countries will pay Poland for the services of balancing the network.

BRELL – the Belarus-Baltic-Kaliningrad energy ring – was conceived to increase the reliability of the network and synchronize modes. It operates on the basis of networks built in the USSR, according to an agreement from 2001. It assumes a synchronous mode of operation of the energy systems of five countries at a single current frequency of 50 Hz.

How will the switchover take place?

“This is not a shutdown, but a switchover, because we are switching from one system to another – from Russian to continental Europe,” Krupensky clarifies. It will take place over several days.

On February 7, operators in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will disconnect from the Russian synchronous network.

On February 8, tests will begin on the ability of the three countries’ power systems to operate independently.

On February 9, the three countries will connect to the continental European power grid via the Lithuanian-Polish connection.

The Baltic countries will pay Poland for network balancing services.

By that time, everything will be ready in Estonia, Elering has repeatedly assured. And the expert agrees. “In Estonia, almost all investments have already been made, three network compensators have been purchased and are ready to work,” says Krupensky.

The entire switching project is quite expensive – 1.6 billion euros. But Estonia’s costs amounted to about 300 million euros. Three quarters of the costs are covered by the European Union budget.

What the refusal means for Russia

After the end of supplies to the EU, China and Kazakhstan became the largest markets for Russian electricity. But they do not consume as much as Russia’s former partners. Energy supplies abroad fell by 21.3%.

A representative of Russia’s System Operator of the Unified Energy System, the energy system’s dispatcher, told Russia’s Vedomosti that the decision by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia “will not affect the stability of the Russian energy system.”

What does this mean for Estonian business?

The switchover will not affect the price of electricity, Krupensky believes. “It is determined on the Nord Pool exchange,” the expert recalls. And Inter RAO was completely disconnected from it in mid-May 2022, and that was when it affected prices.

“If we talk about whether we should, say, buy diesel generators or something else in case of a power outage, then I think that we shouldn’t do that. Our operator Elering has certain obligations to provide all our consumers with electricity. It has reserves for this,” says Krupensky.

“Can we make money on this? Almost all the money has already been spent. And some of it has been received by Estonian energy companies. But other construction projects are also expected. Previously, most of our electricity was produced in the east of the country and then distributed to the west and south,” he notes. Now, if you look at the plans of the producers, they are going to generate energy in the west.

“Accordingly, this will require a major renovation of our network. It is already being said that additional high-voltage lines will be installed in Kuressaare, so companies that design and build power lines will be in demand in the near future,” the expert notes.

According to him, it should also be expected that Estonia’s energy independence will increase the demand for energy engineers.