Yesterday, the Producer Price Index in the USA was below expectations, increasing by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis and 3.3 percent on an annual basis in December 2024. Analysts noted that yesterday’s PPI data alleviated investors’ inflation concerns, albeit to a limited extent. On the other hand, the federal government’s budget deficit in the USA decreased to 87 billion dollars.
While the statements of Fed officials are also being followed, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid stated that the Bank may take action in case of a disruption in price stability and employment duties regarding additional customs duties. With these developments, it continues to be priced in the money markets that there is a 42 percent probability that the Fed will make the first interest rate cut of the year in July.
Stating that the balance sheet season for the 4th quarter has begun, analysts said that sector and stock-based volatilities may increase due to the effect of balance sheets. Analysts reported that the busy balance sheet calendar is in the focus of investors today, especially JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi Group, Bank of New York Mellon and Goldman Sachs.
Gold, dollar, stock market…
While the US 10-year treasury bond interest rate decreased to 4.76 percent after the PPI data was published, it is currently balanced at 4.79 percent. While the ounce price of gold increased by 0.5 percent yesterday and closed at 2 thousand 676 dollars, it closed at $ 2,676 on the new trading day. It is trading at $2,675, just below the previous close.
While the dollar index completed the day yesterday at 109.3 with a 0.6 percent decrease, today it is at 109.2 with a 0.1 percent decrease. Brent oil has currently decreased by 0.2 percent and stabilized at 79.4 dollars.
Yesterday in the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index gained 0.11 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.52 percent, while the Nasdaq index lost 0.23 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a positive trend.
Europe’s agenda: Inflation
Stating that the Bank of England will announce the first monetary policy of the year on February 6, he said that today’s inflation data, which is lower than expected, may have an impact on the bank’s decisions. On the other hand, while the decline in manufacturing industry activity in Europe continues to be one of the main agenda items of the countries in the region, the industrial production to be announced today in the Euro Zone is being closely followed.
Yesterday, the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.20 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.93 percent and the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 0.69 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in England lost 0.28 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day on a positive note.
BOJ President’s statements attracted attention
While a mixed course is observed in the new trading day on the Asian side, political developments in South Korea are in the focus of investors. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the strength gain in price conditions continues, the BoJ will increase interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary support.
Ueda, in his speech at a meeting attended by regional banks, stated that the economic policy of the new administration in the USA and the momentum of the wage negotiations to be held in Japan this year will play an important role in determining the timing of the interest rate increase, adding: “The timing of the adjustment of monetary policy depends on the future economic, price and financial conditions. “he said.
With these developments, near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 0.1 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China lost 0.3 percent, while the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.1 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.1 percent. rose.
Borsa Istanbul
While Dollar/TL closed horizontally at 35.4800 yesterday, it is traded at 35.5100 with an increase of 0.1 percent at the opening of the interbank market today. Analysts stated that technically, 9,700 and 9,650 points are support levels in the BIST 100 index, and 9,900 and 10,000 points are resistance levels.
Data to follow in the markets today
10.00 UK, December Consumer Price Index (CPI)
10.00 UK, December retail sales
11.00 Türkiye, December budget balance
12.00 Germany, 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
13.00 Eurozone, November industrial production
15.00 USA, weekly mortgage applications
16.30 USA, December Consumer Price Index (CPI)
16.30 USA, January New York Fed manufacturing index
22.00 US Fed’s Beige Book Report
Source: www.dunya.com
