Europeans are almost alone in mourning the election of Donald Trump, the rest of the world rather rejoices

Donald Trump’s second term as president is widely seen as a “good thing” around the world, but that sentiment is not shared by citizens of some of the United States’ closest allies, including the United Kingdom, the EU and South Korea, according to a report published by a 24 the pan-European think tank ECFR in cooperation with the “Europe in a changing world” project of the University of Oxford filtered from the data of a nationwide public opinion survey.

According to the study “Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections”, their survey revealed four important things. First, Europeans are almost alone in mourning the election of Donald Trump. Second, many people in other countries seem to view the Trump-led USA as one of the “normal great powers” in an “à la carte” world. Third, many also believe that the president-elect is committed to ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fourth, most of the world sees Europe as stronger than Europeans themselves. They say that the European Union can act on an equal footing with the United States and China.

The USA is no longer seen as spreading its values ​​and acting as a global defender of the liberal international order. Instead, contrary to the president-elect’s declarations about “making America great again,” few believe that the US can assume the mantle of the world’s leading superpower in the future. Moreover, the majority of respondents see China as the country that will take over this role in the next period. This suggests that Trump’s return coincides with a decline in American geopolitical exceptionalism and points in a direction in which the US will take its place among other great powers in a multipolar world.

The survey of 28,549 people, conducted immediately after the American presidential election in November, yielded, among other things, the following results:

A majority or majority of leading middle powers, from India and China to Turkey to Brazil, believe that Trump’s return will be a “good thing” for world peace, their countries, and American citizens. This perception is particularly pronounced in India (82, 84 and 85%) and Saudi Arabia (57, 61 and 69%).

Trump’s actions promising to create peace in relation to Ukraine and the Middle East were echoed around the world. In India, for example, large majorities (65% for Ukraine and 62% for the Middle East) believe that Trump’s return makes peace more likely. This was said by most people in Saudi Arabia (62 and 54%), Russia (61 and 41%), China (60 and 48%) and the United States (52 and 44%). Ukrainians are more cautious when it comes to Trump’s ability to create peace: those polled are roughly divided on the question (39% say his return could help bring peace to Ukraine, while 35% say this is less likely), but the least in Europe and South – In Korea, they are optimistic about this.

In the United Kingdom, South Korea and the countries of the EU – which are key allies of the USA – they are skeptical about whether Trump’s second presidency can bring any change to the situation in Ukraine or the Middle East. Only 24% in the United Kingdom, 31% in South Korea, and an average of 34% in the eleven surveyed EU countries believe that Trump’s return would make peace in Ukraine more likely, and even fewer (16%, 25% and 19%) for this in relation to the Middle East. More broadly, only one in five people (22%) in the EU say they see the US as an ally. This is well below the rate of two years ago (31%), and it is contrary to the fact that Americans see the EU as an ally in a much higher proportion (45%).

The prevailing opinion of those polled is that US global influence will become “greater” in the next ten years, but they do not think this will lead to “making America great again”. The idea of ​​US dominance is not widely shared, according to Chinese, Russian, Saudi Arabian, Turkish, Indonesian, South African, Swiss, Brazilian, EU and British majorities, China will be the strongest power in the world in the next 20 years. Only Ukraine and South Korea have majorities that consider it “unlikely” – while in India and the United States public opinion is split on the issue.

The weakening of the West can be seen in Russia’s dramatic failure to isolate Moscow globally following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In many countries, there is a remarkably strong acceptance of Russia as an ally or necessary partner, despite the fact that Russia has been waging a brutal neo-colonialist war in Ukraine for nearly three years. The number of Indians and Chinese who see Russia as allies has even increased slightly since January 2023. Americans’ average opinion of Russia has also improved, even though the majority still see Russia as a rival or adversary. And in many non-Western countries—China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey—most expect Russia’s global influence to grow over the next decade; Almost half of the population in Brazil and Indonesia also feel this way.

At the same time, Russians and Chinese are much more united in mutual respect than Europeans and Americans. The perception of Russia in China has slightly strengthened since the end of 2022, but the perception of China in Russia has also strengthened. This makes this pair a rare “entente cordiale” in today’s world politics.

The report identifies five different groups related to Trump’s return to the White House. “Trump welcomers” are most pronounced in India (75%) and Saudi Arabia (49%), but there are also many in Russia (38%), South Africa (35%), China (34%) and Brazil (33%) , who see the president-elect positively for Americans and world peace. The “Trump Rejects” form the most populous camp in the UK (50%), Switzerland (37%) and the EU (28%). The “peace lovers” who consider Trump’s re-election better for world peace than American citizens are in China (21%), Switzerland (16%) and Ukraine (13%). The “contradicted,” drawn from countries at risk of US withdrawal, including South Korea (48%), believe Trump’s election is worse for world peace than for American citizens. Finally, there are the “uncertains” who take a cautious “wait and see” approach, saying that Trump is “neither good nor bad” for American citizens and world peace. This position is particularly pronounced in Ukraine (20%) and Russia (16%).

Respondents widely see the bloc as an “ally” or a “necessary partner”. This view is most pronounced in Ukraine (93% ally or partner vs. 4% rival or adversary), the United States (76% vs. 9%), and South Korea (79% vs. 14%). But this is the majority opinion everywhere else – except Russia.

According to the report’s foreign policy experts Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, and co-author historian Timothy Garton Ash, European leaders are unlikely to build internal unity or find global allies if they try to build a worldwide liberal opposition to the president-elect. In the past two years, when the Biden administration stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Europe against Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was still possible to speak of a “united West” in foreign policy. However, with Trump’s return, divisions will arise not only between the US and Europe or other important allies such as South Korea, but also within the EU itself.

In order to become stronger and more united in the coming period, the EU must first act more confidently when it comes to its own interests and shaping relations with other powers. Second, it must live up to the perception that it is treated as a global power and has growing influence. Finally, it should take advantage of strategic partnerships, such as with Brazil, India and South Africa, where people widely see the EU as a strength, ally or partner. The authors note that the recent trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur (South American Common Market) shows the possibilities for a more unified EU. At the same time, they suggest that, rather than serving as a moral arbiter, Europe should build on its internal strengths and seek new bilateral partnerships to defend its own values.