Israel and Hamas announced this Wednesday an agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza. The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House – he himself was the one who announced the news through his social networks – has been key to signing an agreement after fifteen months of war, which has reduced the Strip to rubble and which was unleashed he October 7, 2023 following the murder of more than 1,200 Israelis in an unprecedented terrorist offensive by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Alberto Spektorowski, professor of Political Science at Tel Aviv University, historian and international analyst, addresses in They got up the details of the agreement.
Ask. What have been the main obstacles in the negotiation?
Answer. There have been so many that one loses the idea of which one has been the main one. Let’s say that Hamas evidently wants to end up as the winner in the matter. Obviously it was putting obstacles in any way to what Benjamin Netanyahu wanted. Netanyahu wanted the hostages released, but is not convinced of the results of the deal. What there is is a ceasefire, but the end of the war is much more problematic. A group of hostages are released, although not all; But what Netanyahu wanted was to end Hamas, which is not finished yet. He is happy to receive the hostages, but reluctantly accepts the deal.
Q. So why did you do it?
R. Netanyahu cannot say ‘no’ to Donald Trump. Trump imposed it. The treaty was made much earlier, by Biden. But it was Trump who threatened and said very clearly: “Either it is signed, or hell.” He said it was “hell” for Hamas, but it was also for Netanyahu. It is the new rhythm of American politics.
Q. Trump’s arrival at the White House has been decisive.
R. It has been decisive. Trump’s air said where we are going. Obviously there are many flats behind the agreement. I believe that Netanyahu hopes at some point that the second part of the agreement cannot be fulfilled by Hamas. There, what Trump would have told him is that, in that case, the United States fully supports Israel in withdrawing all humanitarian aid to Hamas. And that would imply starve to Gaza and the unconditional defeat of Hamas.
Q. What points of the second part of the agreement do you refer to?
R. I dare say that Netanyahu more or less understands that Hamas will not be able to comply with the second part of the agreement. Reading between the lines is what it seems. After this first part, we have to see how everything works: if Hamas tries to rearm, if Hamas shows signs that it is ruling again… Netanyahu is not going to allow them to arm themselves again. The skirmishes in this period are going to be big. The demand should be disarmament, but Hamas cannot allow it. He cannot allow himself anything that suggests he will be defeated.
Q. You are not particularly confident.
R. Every demonstration by Hamas along those lines will be responded to by Israel. The skirmishes between the first part of the agreement (with the release of 33 or 34 hostages) and the second will be extremely thorny. I imagine that Trump will have told Netanyahu that he will allow him to withdraw humanitarian aid, as he told him before. To do that, it has to be clear that Hamas is violating the rules of the game. We will have to see if it does, because Hamas also understands that with Trump the rules of the game changed and that with Trump it is not a game.
Trump is going to try to impose the concept that the withdrawal of humanitarian aid is a legal act.
Q. It is an agreement that puts the release of citizens kidnapped by Hamas on the same balance as some terrorists captured by Israel.
R. It is not fair, but justice no longer enters the game. There is no other choice. Personally, I’m not so afraid of that: even if they are not released, others will try to do the same. What is going to happen is that Israel is not going to give up control over everything that happens in Gaza. He is not going to rest on his laurels like he did on October 7 (when Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched the terrorist attacks on Israel). That era is over. That way of working of Israel we see it in Lebanon. There is a ceasefire, but no one raises his head in Hezbollah. That’s going to happen in Gaza.
Q. Under whose command will Gaza be? Politically, will Hamas or the Palestinian Authority dominate? And what military presence will remain? Will an international mission be allowed or will it remain under Israeli management until the entire agreement is implemented?
R. Israel, perhaps wrongly – there are many voices for or against – did not allow anyone to take charge of Gaza. Israel avowedly wants the destruction of Hamas, but indirectly has no other candidate to lead Gaza. It seems to me that there is no other possibility for Hamas to continue running Gaza. What Israel should fight for from the beginning in any agreement is the disarmament of Hamas: the political part of Hamas can stay, but never as an armed group. It is something that Israel must demand of the international community and everyone should agree on that. I think Hamas will stay and exercise power, and will try to rearm. Israel will not allow it and that is where the second part of the treaty will begin to break. I hope it doesn’t happen and that it continues along the correct line.
Q. And about the military deployment in Gaza…
R. Israel is not going to allow anyone to enter. The Israeli military presence will be until the final part of the treaty. And the end of the treaty will be when Israel withdraws from Gaza. But Hamas’s central problem is that it does not trust this last point. I think it is difficult for Hamas to hand over the last hostages. Unfortunately, they will stay for a long time.
Source: www.vozpopuli.com
