According to initial data from Statistics Estonia, on January 1, 2025, the population of Estonia was 1,369,285 people, which is 5,402 people less than the year before. In 2024, 9,646 people were born and 15,596 people died in Estonia. According to registered migration data, 13,826 people arrived in the country, and 13,278 people left the country. The number of births and immigrants decreased compared to 2023, the department said.
According to Department of Statistics lead analyst Terje Trasberg, 2024 was similar to 2023: “Almost 6,000 more people died than were born last year. Immigration exceeded emigration by 550 people. If in the last two years the positive balance of migration compensated for the exceptionally low number of births, then in 2024 the population fell by more than 5,000 people overall.”
The number of births continues to decline
The analyst noted that in 2024 the reduction in the number of births accelerated compared to 2023. “Last year, 9,646 children were born, that is, more than 1,000 fewer than in 2023. This is the third year in a row with a record low number of births since regular publication of statistics began in 1919,” she said. Trasberg explained that the low birth rate is primarily a result of rising costs of living and the current geopolitical situation, which are causing families to delay plans to have children.
As in Estonia, the number of births has fallen sharply throughout Europe in recent years. According to preliminary data, last year the decline in fertility continued in Latvia and Lithuania, but in Finland it stopped.
“The number of deaths has decreased by 400. The pre-pandemic mortality rate of 2010-2019 has fully recovered, and life expectancy is trending upward,” the analyst said. However, due to the aging of the population, the number of deaths is not expected to decline for a long time – rather, it may increase in the next decade.
The migration balance of Estonian citizens is positive
According to registered migration data, in 2024, 13,826 people arrived in Estonia and 13,278 left, i.e. immigration exceeded emigration by 548 people. Among those who arrived, more than 6,200 people, or 45%, had Ukrainian citizenship. In 2022, 33,200 Ukrainian citizens arrived in the country, and in 2023 – 13,100.
“Among those who left the country, about 5,300 people, or 40%, were citizens of Ukraine. The balance of migration of Estonian citizens, according to preliminary data, was positive by 500 people: 4,700 citizens left the country, and 5,200 came to Estonia,” the analyst added.
Compared to the original statistics of births and deaths, more refinements are expected in migration statistics, since the original values were obtained from population register data, and immigration and emigration are often not recorded in the population register. The Department of Statistics will supplement migration data with indicators of unregistered migration and publish updated data in April.
The initial population size is calculated based on the number of births, deaths and migration recorded in the population register last year. The Department of Statistics will publish the updated population on April 23.
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Source: www.dv.ee
