The Belarusian “Radio Svaboda” service asked dozens of experts – political scientists, political scientists, journalists – to think about the future after A.Lukashenko.
The survey was conducted in 2024. August 1-10 It was attended by 43 experts – citizens of Belarus, the United States of America, Canada, Lithuania, Poland, Canada, Russia and Ukraine.
Scenarios of change of power in Belarus
How can the government change in Belarus? Slightly more than half of the experts believe that A.Lukashenko’s death is the most likely and most realistic option for a change of power in Belarus.
A.Lukashenko’s death will basically mean a change of power, at least a personal one – after his death, he will certainly not be able to take up his current position. Those who chose this option did not explain what kind of government changes, other than personal ones, they expect after the death of the current ruler.
At the same time, approximately every fourth expert indicated the reform of the political system initiated by A.Lukashenko as the most likely scenario. This response was not necessarily associated with a positive view of the expert. It was also indicated by those experts who do not have warm feelings for A. Lukashenko.
Reforms are different. The organization of competitive free elections for the head of state, even if A. Lukashenko participates in them and wins fairly, will undoubtedly be a reform. However, the decision to leave the post of president, not to participate in next year’s elections, while retaining the post of chairman of the All People’s Assembly of Belarus and real power in the state can also be considered a reform.
Other options – both forceful (a palace coup and a campaign of armed opponents of A.Lukashenko’s regime from abroad) and peaceful (A.Lukashenko’s voluntary resignation) – garnered few votes.
None of the experts indicated either a revolution or a foreign invasion from the West or the East as a likely way of a change of power.
Who will be the next president?
The experts who took part in the survey were also asked two questions about the hypothetical situation if A.Lukashenka suddenly left the government – who would then lead the country? Two scenarios were proposed – when A.Lukashenka appoints a successor before leaving power and when he suddenly leaves power before appointing a successor.
At first glance, the questions resemble guessing from coffee grounds. However, in fact, they are related to an expert assessment of the political weight and power of the actors of the Belarusian political elite.
Photo of the Belarusian Olympic Committee/Viktor Lukashenka
According to experts, Viktor Lukashenko is the undisputed leader of the “heirs by will”. Although A.Lukashenka himself has repeatedly said that he will not transfer power to his sons, almost every second expert believes that if he would transfer power to someone, it would only be to his eldest son.
Behind him is a trio with roughly the same number of votes: the head of the Council of the Republic Natalia Kochanova, the Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko and the head of Lukashenko’s administration Dmitry Krutoy. These three persons are the highest public officials. Perhaps the experts, when naming them, were guided by their official status, and not by knowledge of A.Lukashenko’s personal preferences.
Photo of the Parliament of Belarus/Natalija Kochanova
All other candidates mentioned by experts received one vote each. Only one expert named his younger son, Nikolai Lukashenko, as the most likely successor.
Aliaksandras Lukashenka with his son Nikolai / Scanpix photo.
It is worth noting that Viktor Lukashenka was nominated, although undisputed, but only with a relative majority of votes. One of the experts explained why he was not chosen:
“If death comes to him sooner than Lukashenko plans (and his plan is to live and rule until Nikolai’s 35th birthday, when under the current Constitution his favorite son can be elected president), then Viktor Lukashenko’s “temporary lease of the presidential chair” is possible. However, the father’s distrust of his eldest son is so great that such an option is unlikely.”
If A.Lukashenka leaves power without appointing a successor, the name of the possible leader of Belarus is much less clear.
According to the 2022 February 28 according to the wording of the Constitution adopted by referendum, if the current President of Belarus is unable to perform his duties, the Chairman of the Council of the Republic temporarily assumes the duties of the President. In the event of the death of the President, his powers are temporarily transferred to the Security Council, which is also chaired by the President of the Council of the Republic. Currently, it is Natalija Kochanova.
According to the previous version of the Constitution, the temporary successor of the president who became incapacitated was the Prime Minister. Both before the referendum and now, Roman Golovchenko held this position.
TASS photo/Roman Golovchenko
These two officials were mentioned by the majority of experts, but V.Lukashenka again came in third place, albeit far behind.
One of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition in exile, Pavel Latuška, and the commander of K. Kalinauskas’ regiment fighting in Ukraine received only one vote each. This testifies that experts do not foresee radical political changes and the coming to power of the opposition in the event of A.Lukashenko’s resignation. At least for the foreseeable future.
Source: www.15min.lt
