The journalist emphasized that such a scenario can still be avoided. The most realistic scenario of a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat, in his view, would look like this: the roughly four-fifths of Ukrainian territory still under Kyiv’s control receives a military commitment from the West that will be strong enough to deter any further Russian offensive, ensures large-scale investment in economic recovery, encourages Ukrainians to return from abroad and rebuild their country, creates conditions for stable, pro-European politics and reforms.
In the long term, the country joins the European Union in five years, and then, under the leadership of the new US administration, begins the process of joining NATO. Most of Ukraine becomes a sovereign, independent and free country firmly established in the West.
“Loss of a large territory, at least 3.5 million the suffering, casualties of the dead, maimed and traumatized Ukrainians living under Russian occupation would be a terrible price. It would not be the complete victory that the Ukrainians hoped for and deserved, but it would still be a victory for Ukraine and a historic defeat for Russia,” writes T. Garton Ash.
He believes that this is how most Ukrainians would perceive the situation. Surveys by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed that when asked whether they would (albeit with difficulty) accept the loss of some territory in exchange for a combination of economic reconstruction and membership in the European Union and NATO in order to end the war, the proportion of Ukrainians who responded positively jumped from 47 in the past six months percent up to 64 percent
In the opinion of the author of the article, in order to achieve such a result when Donald Trump is the host in the White House, it would be necessary for the coalition of European allies to undertake security commitments of an unprecedented size and courage.
“European leaders are increasingly realizing this, but democratic politics in most European countries is too far from enabling them to do this,” writes T. Garton Ash, adding that if they don’t, they will have to ask the question “what will happen?” if Russia wins?”.
According to him, the consequences of Russia’s victory would be felt not only by Ukraine, but also by the United States and the European Union. The general concept of world peace would also suffer.
Shutterstock/War in Ukraine
As for Ukraine, in the opinion of the journalist, it would be defeated, divided, demoralized and emptied. Money would not come to rebuild the country, and another wave of people would leave it. Politics would become irreconcilable, with a strong anti-Western tendency. New opportunities for Russian disinformation and political destabilization would emerge. Necessary reforms would stop, along with progress towards EU membership.
A blow to the heart of Europe
Meanwhile, across Europe, writes T. Garton Ash, the hybrid war that Russia is already waging against it would intensify. He recalled that not a week goes by without an incident: a Russian fighter jet fires a missile at a German military helicopter; exploding DHL shipments, sabotaging French railways, setting fire to a Ukrainian-owned company in East London; Submarine cables are cut in the Baltic Sea; one of Germany’s largest arms manufacturers is under threat.
“Not all of these events can really be linked to Moscow, but many of them can be linked,” says the journalist.
Hybrid warfare includes not only the aforementioned incidents, but also interference in elections. In Sakartvele, the elections were rigged. In the Moldovan EU referendum, according to President Maia Sandu, about 9 percent votes were directly bought by Russia. In Romania, the first round of the presidential election will be repeated after a court found large-scale election campaign violations on the social platform TikTok.
Reuters/Scanpix/German helicopter
“Ah, it’s Eastern Europe!” exclaims a satisfied Christmas shopper in Madrid, Rome or Dusseldorf. But the head of Germany’s domestic security service recently warned that Russia would try to interfere in February’s German general election, which is hardly insignificant for the future of Europe.
T.Garton Ash reminded us of the self-confidence President Vladimir Putin radiated during his live-line address to the nation, which the journalist called “Call-the-Tsar” broadcast in December.
“It is now a war economy dependent on military production to sustain growth and a dictatorship driven by confrontation with the West.” It would be very naïve to hope that diplomacy can reach a magic moment where Putin’s Russia will suddenly become “satisfied” with the results in Ukraine and return to peacetime business as usual. When NATO planners say that by 2029 we should be prepared for possible Russian aggression against NATO territory, they are not just telling themselves horror stories to increase the military budget,” the journalist observed.
He pointed out that Trump’s voters in the United States say that Europeans should take care of themselves while their country is taken care of by China. But the analyst noted that Russia is now working more closely with China, North Korea and Iran than ever before.
“The International Criminal Court can indict Putin, but he still travels halfway around the world as a welcome guest. He himself spoke of a new “global majority” and “the formation of a completely new world order.” In that new order, war and territorial conquest are perfectly acceptable means of politics, on a par with poisoning, sabotage, disinformation, and election interference. Russia’s victory in Ukraine will encourage China to increase pressure on Taiwan, and North Korea on South Korea,” said T. Garton Ash.
“Either NATO or atomic bombs!”
According to him, the most serious consequences of Russia’s victory in Ukraine include the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
He recalled that in 1994 Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia, and then became a victim of one of the powers that promised security.
Shutterstock/War in Ukraine
According to the latest KIIS survey, 73 percent of Ukrainians supports that Ukraine “restores nuclear weapons”. Even 46 percent respondents say that they would do the same if the West imposed sanctions and stopped aid.
“Essentially, Ukrainians are saying to the West: if you don’t defend us, we (deleted) will do it ourselves.” During my recent visit to Ukraine, I repeatedly heard: “Either NATO or atomic bombs!” But this is not only about Ukraine. Vulnerable countries around the world will also come to the same conclusion when looking at what is happening in the Middle East. The more countries – and possibly non-state actors – acquire nuclear weapons, the more likely they will one day be used,” the analyst emphasized.
Source: www.15min.lt
