A scenario to get the “forgotten” out of extreme poverty while respecting planetary limits

Co-president of the Club of Rome, Sandrine Dixson-Declève recalls that the challenges of ecological transition involve the dismantling of deep and neocolonial inequalities.

We are experiencing a planetary emergency with profoundly unequal consequences on a global scale. 700 million people live on less than $2.15 a day, 4 billion have no social protection, and 850 million women are victims of violence. By 2030, climate change could push more than 100 million additional people into extreme poverty.

The number of these “forgotten” people is increasing, mainly women, children and young people, as well as rural populations, vulnerable communities and the urban poor. All face multiple challenges due to discrimination, isolation, vulnerability to shocks and lack of access to resources.

As co-chair of the Rome Club and executive president ofEarth4AllI was able to see that the ecological transition, if not managed carefully, can aggravate existing inequalities and create new ones. Our current economic system fails to protect both people and the planet. We need a new approach that prioritizes well-being, for everyone.

Facing these challenges is impossible without dismantling the deep and neocolonial inequalities that prioritize profit at the expense of humans and the planet. The real causes of these challenges are inequalities and overconsumption by a minority of limited resources. Ensuring minimal resources for all those who lack them would put less pressure on the Earth system than the current excessive consumption caused by a minority.

“Too little, too late”

Earth4All’s modeling of these systems describes two futures. In the “Too little, too late” scenario, the world continues with growing inequality and environmental destruction: the forgotten suffer the worst impacts of climate change and economic disruption. This scenario aligns the ingredients for social unrest and increased environmental degradation. Emancipating the forgotten involves transforming the systems that perpetuate the unequal distribution of wealth and decision-making power.

Our desirable scenario is entitled “Giant Steps”, it aims for a transition that lifts billions of people out of poverty while respecting planetary limits. This scenario is based on five “extraordinary course changes” over the next decade to create a more equitable and sustainable world: eradicating poverty, reducing inequalities, empowering women, and finally, transforming our food and energy systems. These transformations are essential to ensure that our economic system serves society and the environment. In practice, we propose to move from maximizing GDP to maximizing well-being for all.

For the transition to be fair, we need progressive taxation and a redistribution of wealth, so that the costs do not fall on those who are least able to bear them. A basic universal dividend could serve as a safety net while our economies reorganize.

The ecological transition must go beyond preserving our planet. Our modeling shows that none of the environmental objectives will be achieved without concerted action on inequalities and poverty: our speed of action on planetary limits is directly linked to the speed of action on inequalities and poverty. It is only through these five extraordinary course changes applied simultaneously that we will be able to generate the solutions necessary to secure our current and future common goals.

The survival of humanity depends on our ability to return to a sustainable balance, which will only be possible by meeting the basic human needs of populations around the world, so that the forgotten of today become the autonomous citizens of tomorrow. This is the only way to ensure a stable and prosperous future within planetary boundaries for all of humanity.