Katri Rajk is conducting negotiations, thanks to which he may return to power in Narva. Possible allies include Mikhail Stalnukhin, her long-term political opponent. But the creation of such a coalition is only one of the possible scenarios.
The centrists decided to go to the 2025 municipal elections in Narva with a party list. On the evening of November 13, the board of the Narva district of the party voted to create a Centrist faction in the city assembly. In practice, this means that the ruling Narva faction, which included 21 deputies, is split into two parts – into centrists and the team of Mikhail Stalnukhin, who was expelled from the Central Committee. Moreover, at the moment it is unclear how many people will be in each of the new factions.
The third force in the city assembly remains the currently opposition Respekt faction – supporters of Katri Raik.
There are a total of 31 members in the Narva City Assembly, and the division of the Narva faction means that now only a coalition of any two of these three political forces can have a majority in the city assembly.
A storm in a teacup or an alliance of opponents?
Social Democratic Katri Raik told the press that she was negotiating with both the centrists and Mikhail Stalnukhin. According to her, a coalition agreement with any of them could be signed on Tuesday. Centrist leader Alexei Evgrafov also said that negotiations are ongoing and different coalitions are possible. Mikhail Stalnukhin expressed in a conversation with Äripäev his readiness to comment on the situation on Tuesday evening.
If the new centrist faction comes to an agreement with Stalnukhin, there may not be any significant changes in the city assembly – instead of a single ruling Narva faction, the same politicians will cooperate within two allied factions. In this case, all the noise around Katri Raik’s possible sudden return to power will turn out to be a storm in a teacup.
But if the contradictions between supporters of Evgrafov and Stalnukhin turn out to be insoluble, then Katri Raik’s return to power will be practically guaranteed – in an alliance with either one yesterday’s political opponent or another.
At the last meeting of the Narva City Assembly, the Respekt faction initiated a vote of no confidence in the chairman of the assembly, Irina Janovich, a member of the Center Party. It is in her place that one of the leaders of the new ruling coalition can sit.
Voting on this issue will take place on Thursday, November 21 and, apparently, the decision will be made under the new alignment of Narva political forces.
Politicians do not rule out any coalitions
Raik emphasized that, despite the negotiations, she does not share Stalnukhin’s positions.
“On the issue of the war in Ukraine, I support Ukraine, and there are no Nazis or fascists in the government of the Republic of Estonia,” she said in an interview with Äripäev.
However, she does not see a problem with these differences.
On the issue of the war in Ukraine, I support Ukraine, and there are no Nazis or fascists in the government of the Republic of Estonia.
“It’s true that there are a lot of statements on the table, but local policy is not based on them,” Rike added.
The question of whether an alliance with Stalnukhin could lead to constant attacks because of his statements initially made Ryke sigh and think. Then she noted that similar attacks would have been made in collaboration with the centrist and current head of the Narva faction Alexei Evgrafov.
“We are not going to deal with a peace treaty in a war, and we are not going to hand out assessments to the government of the republic,” Rike said. She emphasized that she and Stalnukhin have a long journey together, and although their positions do not coincide on many issues, she sees an opportunity to discuss issues that are important to the people of Narva.
She also recalled that Stalnukhin will most likely have a significant number of supporters at the next elections, whose opinions also need to be taken into account.
“At least to myself, and hopefully over time also to the Estonian public, I can explain – if this does happen – why this was the best decision in this situation,” Raik added.
The split is actually due to the fact that they can no longer work together.
Denis Larchenko
Deputy Chairman of the Respekt faction, member of the Eesti 200 party Denis Larchenko believes that a coalition of the two parts of the split ruling faction between themselves, without Raik’s supporters, cannot be ruled out, but it will be difficult for them to cooperate:
“Their split is actually due to the fact that they can no longer work together,” he said.
Alexey Evgrafov, explaining to the Far East the reasons for the collapse of the ruling Narva faction, said that the members of the faction had already decided who would go to the elections on which list, so the Central Committee had to decide to create their own faction. At the meeting on November 13, the centrists also decided that they would go to municipal elections on their party list, and not in any electoral union.
I don’t see a problem at all in creating any kind of coalition, including with Stalnukhin’s list.
Alexey Evgrafov
At the same time, Evgrafov does not rule out a coalition with Stalnukhin’s team. “I don’t see any problem at all in creating any kind of coalition, including with Stalnukhin’s list,” he said.
According to Alexey Evgrafov, the centrists first began negotiations with Katri Raik, but this does not mean that an alliance with her is more preferable. “If we don’t agree, we will talk to Mikhail,” he said.
Denis Larchenko also does not see anything extraordinary in a possible coalition with Mikhail Stalnukhin: “Let me remind you that only a year and a half ago in Narva there was a coalition of three, which included Eesti 200, centrists and the Katri Rajk List.” In fact, there is nothing unexpected – already in this convocation there was a coalition with the participation of us and Stalnukhin.”
Less than a year until the elections
The power reshuffle is taking place a year before municipal elections, which will obviously be unusual.
“Now it will be easier for the voter, because it will already be clear who will go to the elections with whom, what the electoral lists will be. People have some certainty, and they can look at parties, at electoral unions, who can influence what – and can an electoral union influence anything at all?” – says Alexey Evgrafov.
In his opinion, electoral unions break up more often than party lists, and it is safer for voters to choose from parties.
According to Denis Larchenko, Eesti 200 now has two plans for the elections: either to go with a party list, or within the framework of a broad electoral union, in which there will be representatives of different parties and political forces.
Some forecasts for future elections can now be made based only on last year’s parliamentary elections. Their results were such that the Koos representative almost entered parliament, and Estonian politicians decided to amend the Constitution.
The level of support for Katri Rajk in Narva is now very difficult to assess. She won the last municipal elections, setting a historical record for votes collected in Narva in local elections – 4512. She outvoted Mikhail Stalnukhin by more than seven times. But this was in a different era – before the war in Ukraine.
After this, Raik did not participate in parliamentary elections, and in the elections to the European Parliament this summer she received only 509 votes in Narva.
Mikhail Stalnukhin, expelled from the Center Party for calling members of the government fascists after the demolition of Soviet monuments, received the most votes in Narva in the parliamentary elections – 2725 (in Ida-Virumaa as a whole – 4578), but since he stood as an independent candidate, this not enough to get into the Riigikogu.
In second place was Aivo Peterson, who received 1,308 votes in Narva (in Ida-Viru County as a whole – 3,968, which was also not enough to get into the Riigikogu).
In third place among Narva politicians was Alexey Evgrafov – 1228 votes in Narva.
47% of Narvite residents have Estonian citizenship.
In Narva, either about 20,000 people or slightly more than 40,000 people will have the right to vote in municipal elections, depending on the decision on the voting rights of citizens of Russia, Belarus and stateless persons.
Far fewer voters voted in the parliamentary elections than in the local ones, as Estonian citizens in Narva make up only 47%, according to the local Population Register Bureau.
Therefore, even if holders of gray passports and citizens of the Russian Federation lose the right to vote by the municipal elections of 2025, it is more than likely that Stalnukhin and Peterson will be among the winners of these elections in Narva. If, of course, Peterson can run.
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