According to the revised forecast of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) presented by the IMF on Tuesday, this year’s gross domestic product (GDP) calculated for the whole world will increase by 3.2 percent, in line with the indication in April, and next year’s GDP growth forecast will be 3.2 percent as indicated in April. .2 percent to 3.3 percent. Last year, the world economy grew by 3.3 percent.
The IMF kept its expectation for the growth of developed countries this year at 1.7 percent, while leaving next year’s figure unchanged at 1.8 percent. The country group’s gross domestic product grew by 1.7 percent last year.
After last year’s GDP growth of 0.5 percent in the euro zone, the IMF expects economic expansion of 0.9 percent this year, 0.1 percentage point higher than indicated in the April forecast, and in 2025 it forecasts an unchanged GDP growth of 1.5 percent.
The IMF has left Germany’s growth forecast for both this year and next year unchanged: according to this, GDP growth is expected to be 0.2 percent this year and 1.3 percent next year. German GDP decreased by 0.2 percent last year.
The IMF is somewhat less optimistic about the prospects of the American economy this year compared to April: it lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from the 2.7 percent indicated in April to 2.6 percent, while it kept it unchanged at 1.9 percent for next year. US GDP grew by 2.5 percent last year.
The IMF expects growth of 4.3 percent in developing countries both this year and next year, compared to the 4.2 percent indicated in April. The country group’s GDP expanded by 4.4 percent last year.
At the same time, the IMF revised its forecast for China’s growth this year and next year significantly upward compared to April, improving this year’s growth from 4.6 percent to 5.0 percent and next year’s from 4.1 percent to 4.5 percent. China’s economy will grow by 5.2 percent in 2023.
According to the IMF’s expectations, India’s economic growth this year may also be higher than expected in April: accordingly, the IMF raised this year’s GDP growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 7.0 percent, which did not change its forecast for next year at 6.5 percent. held after last year’s growth was 8.2 percent.
Based on the currency fund’s forecast, Russia’s GDP may grow by 3.2 percent this year in line with the April forecast, but the IMF lowered its outlook for next year by 0.3 percentage points to 1.5 percent. Russia’s GDP grew by 3.6 percent last year.
World trade turnover grew by 0.8 percent last year, and according to the IMF’s forecast, it will grow by 3.1 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year. Compared to its April estimate, the IMF improved the data on the development of this year’s and next year’s traffic by 0.1 percentage points.
Brent, Dubai Fateh and US WTI crude prices averaged $80.59 last year. It could be $81.26 this year and $76.38 next year, according to the IMF.
The IMF expects inflation in developed countries to be 2.7 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year, and compared to its April estimate, it has increased both this year’s and next year’s inflation forecast by 0.1 percentage point. The IMF expects inflation of 2.4 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year in the euro zone, 2.4 percent this year and 2.0 percent next year in Japan, and 3.1 percent this year and 2 percent next year in the United States.
In developing countries, this year instead of the 8.3 percent indicated in April, the IMF expects 8.2 percent inflation, while next year, instead of the 6.2 percent in the April forecast, the IMF expects a lower inflation rate of 6.0 percent. Last year, consumer prices rose by 4.6 percent in developed countries and by 8.3 percent in developing countries.
The cover image is an illustration. Cover image source: Portfolio
Source: www.portfolio.hu
