This Wednesday, Allianz Trade revised its estimates for the growth of the Portuguese economy to 1.5% in 2025, above the euro zone average and the 1.4% indicated in the June forecast.
For this year, the credit insurer maintains an economic growth estimate of 1.6% of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In a statement, Allianz Trade says that the evolution of the Portuguese economy “shows signs of resilience”, surpassing the estimated economic growth for the euro zone, of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.4% next year.
Among the main economies of the single currency, forecasts indicate that Germany should record a slight contraction of 0.1% this year and an increase in GDP of 0.7% in 2025, while the French economy should grow 1.1% in 2024 and 1.4% the following year.
Spain, one of Portugal’s main trading partners, is expected to see its economy grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 2% in 2025.
Outside the euro zone, the world’s largest economy — the US — is expected to grow 2.6% in 2024, the year of presidential elections, and grow 1.7% in 2025, while the Chinese economy, the second largest, is expected to climb 5% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.
Globally, Allianz Trade’s forecasts for the evolution of world GDP suggest growth of 2.8% this year and next.
As for inflation, the insurer’s forecasts are that the evolution of consumer prices should approach the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target in 2025, remaining, in Portugal, at 2.4% this year and 1.9% in 2025.
In the euro zone, estimates point to an inflation rate of 2.4% in 2024 and 2% next year.
Among the main economies, Allianz Trade anticipates inflation of around 3% for Spain in 2024, slowing to 2.2% in 2025; for France 2.2% this year and 1.7% next; and for Germany 2.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
In the United States, it estimates that inflation will be 2.9% this year and 2.2% in 2025.
In the proposed State Budget for 2025 (OE2025), delivered on October 10, the government revised upwards the growth of the Portuguese economy to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
As for inflation, the executive predicts a slowdown to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
