Apocalyptic scenes threaten us and will become more frequent

TEMPERATURES of more than 35 degrees, heat waves, storms, floods, hail over five centimeters in size – by the middle of the century will be common occurrences in Serbia, experts say. All of this will affect people’s health and safety, agriculture, tourism, infrastructure, which is why the Government of Serbia adopted the Adaptation Program to Changed Climate Conditions at the end of last year.

Serbia has been in an extreme heat wave for days, and a red weather alert is in effect. During the day, temperatures in most parts of the country go over 40 degrees, and at night they do not drop below 23-24 degrees. This is one of the effects of climate change on our country, and experts estimate that there will be more and more such waves.

– Heat waves used to occur in some period of the year once every 10 years. Sometimes it was in the summer, sometimes in the winter, and they didn’t even come every year. We now have an average of four heat waves per year. This is a huge increase and it is a big change compared to the climate of the 20th century – says meteorologist prof. Dr. Ana Vuković Vimić from the Faculty of Agriculture in Belgrade.

All over the world there is a lot of talk about taking measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the results of the action will be felt only in the second half of the century. What is clear is that in the 21st century we will have a significantly changed climate compared to a hundred years before.

– Compared to the 20th century, Serbia will warm by more than 3 degrees on average. We will have over five heat waves per year and we will have many more days with temperatures above 35 degrees. What we are experiencing now and what we consider extreme will be normal. The main benchmark is 2012, when there were more than 30 days with temperatures over 35 degrees in the lowlands. In the second half of the century, it will either slow down and stabilize or, if the Paris Agreement is not fulfilled, the extremes will continue to accelerate and it is better not to talk about it – explains Dr. Vuković Vimić.

We will have extreme precipitation, more and more supercells

Changes in temperatures have greatly affected the precipitation we have, as well as the increasingly frequent occurrence of storms, hail, and supercell clouds.

– The total annual amount of precipitation has not changed and the projections say that it will not change significantly in the future, but the precipitation regime will be different. This means that we will have the same amount of precipitation throughout the year, only that there will be fewer and fewer moderate ones, and more and more extreme ones. It is an indicator of stormy weather, increasingly frequent periods of drought and increasingly frequent floods. Because if there is less moderate precipitation, it means that the period without precipitation is longer, and if we have heavy precipitation, we will have floods – emphasizes Darko Savić, a researcher from the Faculty of Physics in Belgrade.

Recently, after a period of very high temperatures, many residents of Serbia faced large amounts of hail that damaged crops, houses, cars, and roads. In some parts of the country it was the size of an egg. Experts warn that the occurrence of hail over five centimeters in diameter will become more frequent in the coming period, i.e. that by the end of the century its frequency will increase by 40 to 80 percent on the territory of the whole of Serbia.

– In order for a city to form, it is necessary to form strong, storm clouds, and in order for them to form, it is necessary that there is enough energy in the atmosphere. As the air temperature increases, we have more energy in the atmosphere and this is actually the impact of climate change on extreme weather conditions – adds Savić.

– For the formation of clouds, there must be water vapor in the atmosphere, and water vapor is the fuel for storms. Warm air can contain more water vapor and, on average, for each additional degree of air heating, the amount of water vapor increases by about 7 percent. And it is additional energy, an additional impulse that increases the intensity of stormy phenomena – he explains.

RHMZ is an important factor for the security of the state

The adoption of the Program for adaptation to changed climatic conditions is an important step, because that document envisages, first of all, the strengthening of the capacity of RHMZ, which is the only one allowed to give warnings and early announcements for the occurrence of extreme weather conditions.

– Institutions like RHMZ are considered important for national security everywhere in the world, because they monitor and announce disasters and are in communication with the MUP. They must have state-of-the-art computer systems, and the last serious machines were purchased 15 years ago. Now we have several hours notice that a storm is coming. There’s a huge amount of work behind it and it’s down to a few people. Timely announcements help people know what’s coming in time. So that they wouldn’t find themselves on the road, if they were outside the house during storms. These are small things that in cumulative value can cause significant problems, especially in cities with a high population density – explains Professor Vuković Vimić.

Forecasts must be more and more precise and refer to exact locations, not to an area of ​​the country. It is also necessary to improve the warning system.

– Special products are requested by agriculture and energy, in order to carry out interventions that will reduce damage from various phenomena. In agriculture, this is important because of the protection of crops, and in energy, to know what the demand for energy will be in a certain period, so that the collapses that occurred in the region would not occur – explains the professor.

Necessary measures to adapt to climate change

A special segment of adaptation refers to road infrastructure and changes in road construction and renovation standards, because, he says, standards are currently being applied that are not adapted to the climate conditions we have.

– A big item is the protection of outdoor workers. They are not below the temperatures officially announced by the RHMZ, because he measures the temperature according to world standards in the shade, above the grassy surface. Outdoor workers are in far worse conditions and there needs to be an intervention to protect them – says Vuković Vimić.

The plan envisages a change in the methodology for creating a risk assessment and rescue plan, which currently does not take climate change into account.

– This means that we are underestimating climate hazards even though we are witnessing them. The change will lead to a better risk assessment in our territory, but also in the premises. The inclusion of local self-governments in the adaptation process is a crucial thing, because every part of our country is specific in terms of how houses and streets are built, what the people do, what infrastructure they have, what the topography is like, what the vegetation cover is like. That is why it is important for local governments to recognize climate threats for their municipality and to work on adaptation – she warns.

Climate change has a major impact on extending periods of low flows in rivers. In winter, this means a greater risk of flooding, and in summer, it is a risk of seasonal drying up of smaller rivers. All this has an impact on the living world, and therefore on man.

The implementation of measures that will mitigate the effects of climate change must be a priority, because these changes also have a negative impact on the economies of countries. It is estimated that global warming has exceeded the limit of one degree compared to the pre-industrial period. If it could be limited to two degrees, it would cost the domestic economy around 58 billion dollars by 2040.

BONUS VIDEO: CLOUD BREAKING IN BELGRADE – Strong storm, rain pouring down the streets

(RTS)