It is not yet ready, but it is already clear that it cannot compete with the SpaceX Falcon 9 due to lack of reuse.
There was one at a space conference in Singapore 11 years ago panel discussion, which has since become legendary in certain corners of the space industry, because it says a lot about the European attitude towards the emerging SpaceX. The forum was attended by representatives of a handful of launch vehicle companies, including staff from European-based Arianespace and American launch vehicle company SpaceX. At one point in the conversation, the host asked an Arianespace representative – identified as South East Asia Sales Manager Richard Bowles – how the European institutional company would respond to SpaceX’s promise of lower launch costs and reusability for the Falcon 9 rocket. promise. “My experience in the market is that SpaceX seems to be primarily selling a dream, which is good. We should all have dreams,” Bowles replied. “I think a $5 million or $15 million startup is a bit of a dream. Personally, I think reusability is a dream. How am I going to respond to a dream? My response to the response to the dream is, first of all, we’re not going to wake people up .”
Bowles’ comment was made in mid-2013, by which time SpaceX had only launched the Falcon 9 five times. But his smooth descent and stable landing indicated something regardless. Later in the conversation, Bowles added that he doesn’t think the 100 launches per year that SpaceX has started talking about is “realistic.” Then at one point he turned to a SpaceX official on the panel and said, “You shouldn’t present things that aren’t realistic.” In response, Barry Matsumori, one of SpaceX’s senior vice presidents, calmly said he would let his company show its response through its actions.
Eleven years later, SpaceX now launches more than 100 spacecraft a year. The company’s internal cost of launching a Falcon 9 is well under $20 million. And all of this is made possible by reusing the rocket’s first stage and payload fairing, all of which have now proven capable of flying 20 or more times. One would think that in the decade since, European launch officials have learned their lesson. After all, last year the continent had to scramble to launch one of its flagship projects, the Euclid space telescope, on a Falcon 9 rocket. This year, with the new European Ariane 6 rocket still not ready after countless delays, several Galileo satellites have been launched and will be launched by Falcon 9 rockets.
Some officials have taken notice. European Space Agency chief Josef Aschbacher admitted in a candid commentary last year that the continent was facing an “acute” launch vehicle crisis amid Ariane 6 delays and the rise of SpaceX as a launch competitor. “SpaceX has undeniably changed the launch vehicle market paradigm as we know it,” Aschbacher wrote. “With the reliability of the Falcon 9 and the captivating prospects of Starship, SpaceX is completely redefining the world’s access to space and pushing the boundaries of possibility.” But it seems not everyone got the message.
Next month, the Ariane 6 rocket can finally make its debut. It will probably be successful. Europe has excellent technical capabilities for launching launchers. But the Ariane 6 launch vehicle will cost significantly more from day one than the similarly capable Falcon 9 launch vehicle, and it will not be reusable. To be sure, it will meet Europe’s institutional needs, but it probably won’t shake up the market and realistically compete with the fully reusable Falcon 9.
And what about Starship? If and when SpaceX can launch it, the next-generation rocket will offer a fully reusable launch vehicle with five times the lift capacity of the Ariane 6 rocket at half the price or less. How can Europe hope to compete with this? The European Space Agency’s director of space transport, Toni Tolker-Nielsen – who, it should be noted, works for Aschbacher – said he was not worried. “Honestly, I don’t think Starship will change the game or be a real competitor” – He told in an interview with Space News. “This huge launch vehicle is designed to take people to the moon and Mars. Ariane 6 is perfect for that job, if you have to launch a four- or five-ton satellite. Starship is not going to wipe out Ariane 6 at all.”
Tolker-Nielsen is right in a way. Starship will not change how Europe launches its small and medium-sized satellites into space. The Ariane 6 rocket, manufactured and launched in Europe, will be the continent’s workhorse. In fact, some European officials are going so far as to push for legislation requiring European satellites to be launched on European rockets. But to say that Starship won’t change the game represents the same head-in-the-sand attitude that Bowles showed a decade ago when he quipped about not waking up the deluded dreamers. In retrospect, it is clear that the dreamers were not SpaceX or its customers. Rather, it is European officials who have convinced themselves that their dominance of commercial launches will continue without innovation.
While they slumbered, these officials ignored the rise of reusability. They decided that the Ariane 6 rocket should look like its predecessors, with solid rocket engines. Meanwhile, following the success of the Falcon 9, almost every new rocket project included a significant element of reusability. It’s no longer just SpaceX founder Elon Musk who says companies must pursue reuse or perish. Almost everyone says that. Maybe someone should wake up Tolker-Nielsen.
Source: sg.hu
