El Niño could become more extreme in the future, according to a weather model.
El Niño, which returned last year, is currently causing a lot of head-scratching for climate researchers, and with the passage of time, more and more wild prognoses regarding climate change are coming to light. This phenomenon moves the Pacific Ocean current towards the south due to the moderation of equatorial winds, which is the cause of many extreme events, from heat waves in Europe to droughts in Africa to intense storms over the west coast of the American continent.
A recently published study does not promise too much good news, because these intense phenomena may become common in the future, and if this happens, there is no turning back. So far, they have been quite rare, but in the future, rhapsodically alternating periods of rapid, intense rainfall and relentless droughts may become regular.
Moreover, if warming exceeds a certain level, it can cause further dramatic changes. By modeling the Earth’s climate system, the authors concluded that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could be a catalyst for further warming, which would further escalate the problematic climate situation, for example by melting the ice sheets.
During extreme events, a huge amount of heat is released into the atmosphere, which is otherwise stored in the subsurface ocean. In the worst case scenario, this could start a self-perpetuating process, the end of which would be difficult to predict. According to the unanimous opinion of climate scientists, if this happens, it will take at least a century to restore the situation.
According to the study, this tipping point can be expected at around +3.7 degrees Celsius, which is bad news, since we have already exceeded the +1.5 degree limit, and according to the most optimal estimates, we will end the 21st century at +2.9 degrees. And if this happens, every El Niño will be accompanied by the most extreme phenomena imaginable.
Although this is only a prognosis, no matter how many of them come true, it could have extremely serious social and economic consequences worldwide. According to the authors of the study, however, the extreme situation in the Pacific region and beyond is expected to cause the death of many people and the destruction of animals.
It is difficult to give a clear answer to the question of whether there is any hope left. As the authors point out, the study uses variables that are slightly different from most climate models, so it should be treated with some caution. However, four of the 5 conditions necessary for escalation have already been met, and the fifth was rejected only due to a lack of data. They believe that their test results will be confirmed by other research.
Source: www.zoldpalya.hu
