No state has benefited more from membership in the European Union (EU) than Poland. The 2005 controversy over the “Polish plumber”, agent of social dumping, is a long way away. The workers who worked in the West returned home. Supported by its 11 billion euros in annual transfers from the EU budget (all funds combined and deduction of the country’s contributions to the budget), the Polish economy is one of the most dynamic in the EU and the standard of living is catching up with the European average (79% of the average, compared to 51% in 2004).
This rotating presidency, until June 30, 2025, comes at the right time. Poland can take advantage of the vacuum left by the forced withdrawal of the two pivotal countries from the EU. Germany is sinking into an unprecedented political and economic crisis and the new presidency of Donald Trump in the United States – “Tariff Man” as he calls himself – does not bode well for Berlin. France has also lost its credit. Disunity is the French evil. In Europe, who still listens to a president who is no longer even listened to at home? In the past, nothing was done in the European Union without the agreement of the two States. From now on, we will do without their agreement. The place is free.
The wings of the white eagle of the Polish flag just need to spread and influence the direction of the EU. There is no doubt that this is Warsaw’s intention.
During the time of the nationalist majority, Warsaw was the linchpin of the Visegrád group (or V4, made up of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic), defending sovereignism against Brussels federalism. The argument has faded. Ambition grew. Returning to the post of Prime Minister in December 2023, Donald Tusk moves from V4 to the Twenty-Seven. In addition, the head of the Polish government was the President of the European Council for five years (2014-2019). He knows the institutions and does not approach this rotating presidency with the same spirit of competition with the European Commission that the other two can have when they carry out the same functions.
Last but not least, Poland is at the forefront of the war in Europe. The country maintains a 200-kilometer border with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. It is also the reception point for refugees (one million) and the crossing point for the vast majority of military aid to Ukraine.
Poland is strong, legitimized by its historical suffering, without competition, its positioning makes it a major player in the Ukrainian conflict… The wings of the white eagle of the Polish flag only have to deploy and influence the orientations of the EU. There is no doubt that this is Warsaw’s intention. The country has considerably increased its military budget (4.7% of its GDP in 2025). The effort must also be European. The priority of the Polish presidency is to strengthen security and defense policies.
This shift in security is timely. Even if this momentum must be considered with caution. Recent experience also calls for caution.
Poland had a decisive influence in the organization of military support for Ukraine and in the supply of arms or ammunition. On the first point, urgency dictated. “In the first weeks of the conflict, faced with the Russian “steamroller”, the Ukrainians needed equipment immediately usable by their armies: in other words, Soviet equipment. (…) However, our country was not able to supply this type of material, not having any in stock, unlike Germany, Poland and other Eastern countries. (legacy of their past as members of the Warsaw Pact, editor’s note)», observe French deputies in November 2023. Once Soviet stocks were exhausted, only “Western” equipment was delivered to Ukraine.
Anyone who has interacted with Poles in a European context knows their very low appetite for negotiation. Unanimity requires a lot of understanding.
The support was unanimous and immediate. Difficulties arose when it came to paying. The EU does not provide materials, but reimburses arms deliveries to States through the European Peace Facility (EFF), financed by States (outside the European Union budget). At what price? The decision must be taken unanimously. The choice was that of a reimbursement based on the replacement price. The first reimbursements were made at 85% of the value. The rate fell to 46%. Thus, equipment dating from the USSR was invoiced at the price of new equipment. Like a used R5 paid for the price of an electric R5…
In the case of Poland, this involved the replacement of aircraft MiG-29 and T-72 battle tanks by the F-35 aircraftbattle tanks M1 Abrams American and South Korean K2 Black Panther battle tanks. For Warsaw, it was certainly a good operation. The country emptied its stock, opportunely combining utility with solidarity by having 42% of its new equipment financed by its partners (including 17% by France). The Polish army is today the most modern in Europe. A comparable influence was reproduced during the adoption of a munitions plan in 2023. In addition to the production of powders, missiles and explosives, Poland demanded that the fund also finance the reconditioning of old munitions.
Poland is not an easy partner. Anyone who has interacted with Poles in a European context knows their very low appetite for negotiation. Unanimity requires a lot of understanding. Some people call it swallowing your hat.
For two years, it was a matter of responding to operational emergencies. The second part concerns the prospects of the arms industry and Europe’s military capacity. This is the big debate of the moment. Initiatives abound. The EU operates today with the European Defense Fund (one billion euros per year until 2027). A new program for the defense industry is announced in addition (1.5 billion euros). A fund of 100 billion euros was suggested by former European commissioner Thierry Breton at the start of 2024. A plan of 400 billion euros was considered in November. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU’s defense industry needs 500 billion euros over the next ten years.
Billions are announced while forgetting two questions. The first is: with what funding? The loan, of course. The European Union has definitively turned its back on budgetary orthodoxy framed by balance rules and a strict financial framework. By combining the outstanding amounts (credits committed but not paid) and the European debt stricto sensu (respectively 543 and 450 billion euros), the EU has a balance to pay of almost 1,000 billion euros. So 400 more… The sums are so abstract that they are announced amid general indifference – and irresponsibility.
The second question is: what for? But after? Because developing a European industry without a commitment to purchase European equipment is inconsistent. Expand industry and buy American? Poland has made its choices. On the one hand, Poland does not have a defense industry. Of the seventy-six decisions to allocate the European defense fund in 2023 (1 billion euros), Poland is coordinator only once, for a minor weapons maintenance project (4 million euros ).
On the other hand and above all, the priority is NATO. President Donald Trump announced that European countries will have to pay. Warsaw is said to have offered 2 billion euros to establish an American base. If it is necessary to buy American equipment, this is apparently not a problem for either Warsaw or Berlin. Paid purchases of American military equipment have already increased fivefold in 2023. And this is only the beginning.
Safety is a priority, everyone agrees. Some – the French – think: no security without autonomy. Poland responds: no security without umbrella. Two different, even opposing, strategies. The European choices of 2025 driven by Poland will be decisive for the future of European defense. For better and for worse.
Source: www.slate.fr
