Australia is rapidly warming – News online

At the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, the chance to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement’s goal of 1.5 degrees will expire in just seven years, according to the findings of the 2024 State of the Climate report.

The document was published jointly by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

On Australian soil, the temperature is already on average 1.51 degrees higher than when it began to be recorded in 1910.

It is expected that the global warming limit of 1.7 degrees will be reached in 15 years.

Joint research by CSIRO and BoM tracked the record global extreme year 2023, the hottest year on the planet, marked by extreme drought, bushfires and deadly heat waves around the world.

The report also outlined how climate change on Earth is already affecting Australia’s weather, from changes in rainfall to extreme heat waves and fires, as well as what this will most likely mean for our future and the future of our children.

Decrease in emissions of harmful gases

According to the BoM’s national manager for climate services, Dr Karl Braganza, who collaborated on the report, although there are still seven years to go, it is internationally recognized that it will be very difficult to keep temperature rises below 1.5 degrees. He also added that the message to the world leaders is very clear, that zero emissions of harmful gases must be reached as soon as possible.

Australia is one of 26 countries where emissions are now falling, with the latest national greenhouse gas inventory estimating they are 28.2 percent below 2005 levels. However, global emissions have only been declining in the last decade, after more than a century of rapid increases.

During 2023, 40.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide were released into the atmosphere. This pushed the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases to a new high of 524 parts per million, over 50 percent higher than in pre-industrial times.

Once released, their impacts last for centuries and are extremely difficult to reverse, requiring carbon removal systems that have proven difficult to produce on a large scale.

What does the future bring?

The major changes the planet has undergone in recent decades are largely irreversible, and further warming over the next few decades is largely inevitable, as greenhouse gases already released into the atmosphere continue to warm the oceans.

– There is still time to keep the temperature rise below two degrees. Every bit of mitigation we can do for the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will make a difference later this century – Braganca believes.

Across Australia, heat waves are already more frequent and extreme, bushfire seasons are now annual events that extend into the winter months, coastlines are eroding and rainfall patterns have undergone significant changes.

All these trends are expected to intensify in this century, which will largely depend on how quickly net zero gas emissions can be reached across the planet.

The temperature rose by 1.51 degrees

Australia has always been known as the land of the blazing sun. However, on average, Australia’s land surface temperature increased by 1.51 degrees between 1910 and 2023, while surrounding sea surface temperatures warmed by 1.08 degrees since 1900.

In 2019, Australia’s hottest year ever, there were 33 days when the national daily temperature exceeded 39 degrees. While 2019 was an extreme year, even the relatively “cool” La Niña years of 2021 and 2022 were warmer than almost any recorded during the 20th century.

Because land areas are warming about 40 percent faster than oceans, by the time we reach the global warming threshold of 1.5 degrees, extreme heat days will be about three degrees warmer than they were for most of the 20th century.

– These are long heat waves, they don’t cool down overnight, and our bodies are not used to adapting to it and we don’t have the infrastructure for such weather – said Dr Jacqueline Brown, CSIRO’s manager of climate research.

Not only will such temperature extremes cause heat-related deaths to skyrocket, but they will affect everything from tourism to agriculture, putting entire industries at risk, scientists warn.

Extreme fires

Dr Brown said fires are now normal and should be thought about every year. While the horror of the 2019-2020 bushfire season, which claimed the lives of 33 Australians, is etched in the community’s memory, 2023 was one of Australia’s most extensive bushfire seasons in terms of area burnt.

The south is getting drier, the north is getting wetter

Southern Australia is becoming drier during the winter months, a trend that has accelerated over the past two decades. Nowhere is this more evident than in southern Western Australia, where rainfall from May to July has fallen by almost a quarter (24 per cent) since 1994. At the same time, northern Australia is becoming wetter, with rainfall increasing by 20 percent during the rainy season, from October to April.

Endangered coastal communities

Globally, sea levels have risen by 22cm since 1900, but scientists say “the worst is yet to come”. In the 20th century, sea level rose on average 1.5 cm per decade, now the rate is closer to four centimeters per decade. Coastal communities and ecosystems will be increasingly threatened, not only as the risk of flooding increases, but also from storm surges, erosion and saltwater leaching into groundwater, the State of the Climate 2024 report warns.