Authorities have been able to estimate how long it will take for France to experience an epidemic caused by the tiger mosquito.

The tiger mosquito is now found in 78 departments in mainland France. It is so well established that the diseases it carries with it could become epidemics in the future. Anses has just published an expert reportwho estimates that the probability of seeing dengue fever, chikungunya or Zika become epidemics in the territory is “quite high” within five years. One of the factors that explains this risk is climate change, which has favored the development of the insect.

Adapting means to risk

“An epidemic of arbovirosis, all viruses combined, has a probability of between 6 and 7, on a scale of 0 to 9, of occurring in the next five years,” the experts at ANSES estimate more precisely. In concrete terms, this means that an outbreak of the disease is born and that it develops to the point where we can no longer link all infected people to the same householdThe transmissions escape the control system, the press release states.

“The management of cases of arboviruses, whether imported or indigenous, requires significant material, financial and human resources. Surveillance and control protocols require, on the one hand, tracing all contacts of the infected person over the previous 10 days and, on the other hand, monitoring the places visited by the patient in order to eliminate the tiger mosquitoes present.”

For example, in 2022, dengue fever represented 66 indigenous cases in the territory. During its investigation, ANSES was told that if additional cases had occurred in recent years, they would have been overwhelmed. It will therefore be necessary to adapt resources to the needs of prevention, but also of surveillance and control of arboviruses.

In addition to the impact on the health system, which could be saturated, especially if several epidemics were to unfold in parallel, ANSES warns of the risks for certain sectors, such as tourism. But it could also tend to worsen social inequalitiesThe Agency recommends increased vigilance among disadvantaged populations, so that they have access to information, means of prevention and care.