BarcelonaAfter a year of war between Israel, Hamas, Lebanese Shiite forces, Iran, the Yemeni Houthis and Iraqi Shiites, with tens of thousands dead, especially Palestinians, it is unclear how the crisis, even if it is not permanent but temporary. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his entourage speak of a “new order” that has not been specified, and so it is unclear what exactly he means by this concept.
To establish the new order, that is, a different correlation of forces, the biggest step Israel must take is to end the Islamic regime in Tehran, and for this it needs the help of the United States. If this path is chosen, it may not be possible to move forward until after the November 5th US election.
The situation in Iran is complicated by the strong polarization that exists between the most religious and anti-Western sectors and the most pro-Western sectors. Although Israel and the United States are taking advantage of this division to cause instability, we cannot expect regime change in the near term, unless the United States steps hard on the accelerator.
If that happens, it would create a very volatile situation in Iran, which may not be in Washington’s interest. In this case, a bloody civil war could not be ruled out, because the regime has considerable support, and all these people, removed from power by force, would not remain idle. The new situation could create more unwanted international instability.
If we rule out the immediate fall of the Iranian regime, which is Israel’s cardinal goal, the Zionist state will want to tighten the pressure on that country more, and the best way to do this is not with military force, but with sanctions economic and political. It would not be a new policy; it has been in place for many years and its future will largely depend on what happens in the American elections.
If the victory is for Donald Trump, the picture could be a little different. During his previous term, the Republican president had a very direct confrontation with Iran, unilaterally abandoned the Iran-US agreement signed by Barack Obama, and imposed very tough economic sanctions that are still in place in large part. If he wins, Trump may reimpose sanctions more aggressively.
Netanyahu’s hard hand
It is obvious that as long as the regime lasts, Tehran will continue to aid Hamas and Shiite groups throughout the region, from Hezbollah to Yemen. Now, Netanyahu and the Americans can do more to limit such aid to Israel’s enemies, particularly military aid. If Hezbollah and Hamas have been able to surprise Israel, it means that Israel has not done everything possible to prevent it.
In recent weeks we have seen that Netanyahu is in a rehabilitation process. The beheading of Hezbollah’s leadership has skyrocketed its popularity. Everything seems to indicate that he wants to remain prime minister after the crisis, and to achieve this he needs to apply a very heavy hand against his enemies.
To achieve this goal, and the resulting deterrence, Netanyahu must pacify Gaza by force and southern Lebanon also by force. A permanent invasion of southern Lebanon would be counterproductive because it would dangerously expose soldiers to a Hezbollah guerrilla. Where it can improve is in the interception of the weapons that Tehran sends to Lebanon and Gaza. This would play into Israel’s favor, but it is not clear that it will be enough to create the new order that Netanyahu seeks.
Source: www.ara.cat
