Bloody hostage drama in the labyrinth of Gaza tunnels: they have been held captive for 11 months

For a year now, attention has been focused on the Hamas tunnels in Gaza. How new is this in modern warfare?

János Kemény: Underground warfare is not new at all, but due to the activities of Hamas, significant attention is now directed to this area. Modern urban warfare has always had its own characteristics, as urban sewer systems (where sufficiently well constructed) provide shelter and protected transport and supply lines. But there are also many modern historical examples of the use of tunnels in non-urban environments. In World War I, belligerents dug tunnels under enemy lines, stockpiled large quantities of explosives, and detonated them. As a result of these actions, lakes were sometimes formed in the craters created by the explosions. The Cu Chi tunnel system became known from the Vietnam War, which was used for supplies, for the care of the wounded and, of course, as a shelter from the firepower of the American forces. In 1979, the radicals occupying the Grand Mosque in Mecca used the building system under the Grand Mosque in their defense against the Saudi security forces. Cave systems, which can be called natural tunnels for the sake of the topic, even though they played a role in the 2001 Afghan war, mentioning the Tora Bora cave system was an everyday thing in the American media at the time.

What is the significance of these tunnels? Why is it difficult to liquidate them?

K.J.: The tunnels provide virtually protected transport, shelter, and supply opportunities at the border for the less armed and organized combatant. Detecting and destroying tunnels is an extremely difficult task. From the ground surface, it can be so-called to use ground penetrating radar, but the deeper a tunnel is, the more difficult it is to detect with this method.

In order to detect and destroy, you must find the entrance, and once you have that, then the extremely dangerous task follows: reconnaissance. When we talk about tunnels in connection with the events in Gaza, we often do not think of a simple tunnel leading from A to B, but often of complex systems with storage rooms, living quarters and other special purposes. In such cases, destroying the entrance is not a good option, as there are many other exits, and it should also be taken into account that Israeli hostages are also held in such places, according to Israeli sources. Attempting to destroy them without mapping them could theoretically cause the death of a part of the hostages, as well as serious damage to the surface structures and is not guaranteed, and due to its complex nature, such a system becomes militarily unusable. Mapping such tunnels is extremely risky, as enemy militants and explosive traps may be planted. Enemy militants know their own tunnel system, so they know where it might be worthwhile to attack the soldiers coming for reconnaissance. Poor visibility and often claustrophobic conditions create extremely difficult conditions for armed combat in tunnels.

When can the hostages finally be freed, how many of them could there be, could they still be alive?

K.J.: Hamas, having learned from previous hostage rescue operations, seems to be holding the Israeli hostages who are still alive scattered in groups of 2-3 people. Based on the reports of the freed hostages that have become known in the media, a good part of them may be held in the Gaza tunnels and other measures have been taken to make it difficult to plan rescue operations. Hamas also uses hostages to protect its tunnel system in this way, since attacks against them can also cause the death of hostages (by the way, Hamas publishes such news from time to time in its media statements).

The physical condition of the recently freed hostages suggests that Hamas is keeping them alive as they hope to gain greater concessions from the Israeli leadership in a possible deal.

The exact number of survivors is disputed, as there is no reliable officially confirmed information (and this information could only come from Hamas representatives, since they are holding them). Media reports speak of around 100, some of whom are probably no longer alive. According to media reports, a total of eight hostages have been rescued by military means so far.

At the beginning of the conflict, Hamas released some hostages citing humanitarian reasons and probably as a gesture towards the outside world. Most of the freed hostages won their freedom as part of the temporary ceasefire agreement, a total of 105, and based on this, the relatives of the hostages who are still in custody are demanding a new agreement to free their relatives. More than 30 people were only able to get out of Gaza dead by the Israeli forces. And the sad case in which three hostages were killed in Israeli friendly fire after they managed to escape from their captors should not be left out of the list.

When will the Israeli military action end?

K.J.: This is a difficult question, since the goals formulated by Prime Minister Netanyahu are difficult to achieve based only on military means. defeating Hamas can only work if, in the period following the armed phase, the political power that directs and rebuilds Gaza consciously and consistently excludes Hamas supporters from political involvement, thus making the group politically impossible. Foreign partners do not show themselves receptive to taking a role in Gaza, as the Palestine Liberation Organization and the UN raise serious doubts about. Ensuring the freedom of the hostages is not feasible (if it were, it would have already happened during the nearly year-long conflict). The safe release of the hostages would be the most effective in the framework of an agreement, but this would require concessions towards Hamas, which is unacceptable to the Israeli leadership. Hamas has not collapsed militarily, and it is not possible to predict from open sources how long it will be able to hold out. And in such circumstances, the current situation can be expected to continue until some significant political-military change occurs and one of the parties is forced to make spectacular concessions.