Breko’s new market analysis shows that fiber optic expansion in Germany is slowing down. Therefore, the goal of nationwide coverage by 2030 may not be achieved.
The expansion of fiber optic networks in Germany is progressing, but early indicators show that the pace is slowing down. This is shown by the market analysis of the Federal Association for Broadband Communications (Breko), which has now been published.
Accordingly, as of June 30, 2024, the expansion rate of fiber optics (Homes Passed) rose from 35.6 to 43.2 percent compared to the previous year, although growth slowed by 1.6 percent. Although Breko sees the political expansion target of 50 percent of households for 2025 as achievable, the 100 percent target for 2030 is far from being met.
In contrast, the connection rate (Homes Connected) has accelerated, rising from 18.3 to 22.8 percent. That was 5.2 million connections, 77 percent of which were with Telekom’s competitors. It is noticeable that the rate of households that also book their existing connection (take-up rate) is still significantly higher with competitors than with Telekom.
In a comparison of the federal states, Schleswig-Holstein continues to have the highest fiber optic expansion rate at 89 percent, followed by Hamburg and Brandenburg. The last places are Berlin and Baden-Württemberg. In terms of the fiber optic connection rate, Schleswig-Holstein also ranks first with 52 percent, followed by Brandenburg and Hamburg. Here again, Baden-Württemberg and Berlin are at the bottom of the list.
At EUR 13.2 billion, total investments in fiber optic and mobile network expansion remained at a high level, but declined slightly for the first time in years. Telekom’s share of investments rose to EUR 5.6 billion, while competitors’ share fell to EUR 7.6 billion.
The analysis also clearly shows that mobile communications are still not a real replacement for landlines. Only six percent of households do without a landline connection. The average monthly data volume per connection is 332 GB for landlines and 7.2 GB for mobile communications.
Breko President Norbert Westfal: “Despite major economic challenges such as increased expansion costs and a shortage of skilled workers, Telekom’s competitors in particular are continuing to push ahead with fiber optic expansion. In addition, with a view to the political expansion target for 2030, a clear political course correction is now more necessary than ever in order to create investment security and provide investment incentives. The fact that expansion is slowing down across the country is an early indicator with consequences: According to forecasts, the federal government will achieve its goal of fiber optics for half of German households by 2025. However, under the current political framework, nationwide fiber optic coverage by 2030 will be missed by a long way.”
Breko is therefore calling on politicians and authorities such as the Federal Network Agency to come up with a clear concept for the upcoming copper-fiber optic migration, measures against double expansion, an acceleration law for network expansion, targeted gigabit funding and a service provider obligation in mobile communications.
Source: www.com-magazin.de
