Cancer deaths expected to increase by 89% by 2050… Who is more at risk?

It is predicted that global cancer incidence and mortality rates will increase significantly by 2050. In particular, it is expected to increase rapidly in countries with low human development index (HDI) and among men.

According to a study titled ‘Global inequality and expected burden of cancer in 2050’ published in JAMA Network Open, cancer incidence and cancer deaths in 2050 will increase by 76.6% and 89.7%, respectively, compared to 2022. It was found that

An international team of researchers led by Australia’s Charles Sturt University used the Global Cancer Observatory database to analyze data for 36 types of cancer across 185 countries and territories. The data is organized around demographic factors such as age, gender and region, as well as HDI measures that reflect a country’s average health, education and income outcomes.

The researchers collected data on the number of people who develop cancer and the number who die from cancer relative to the overall population, and adjusted these figures to account for differences in age distribution across populations. This measure is called mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and is calculated by dividing the number of cancer deaths by the number of new cancer cases. The higher the MIR, the more people diagnosed with cancer die from cancer, indicating a lower survival rate.

To estimate how cancer rates will change by 2050, the researchers used United Nations population projections. Assuming that cancer incidence rates will remain the same, we applied this to the larger and aging global population expected in 2050 to predict future cancer incidence rates and deaths.

According to the analysis, cancer cases are expected to increase by 76.6% from 20 million in 2022 to 35.3 million in 2050. Cancer deaths are expected to increase by 89.7% from 9.7 million in 2022 to 18.5 million in 2050.

In particular, the gap was noticeable between countries with different HDI levels. Countries with low HDI are expected to see their cancer incidence rates nearly triple by 2050, with incidence rates rising by 142.1% and deaths rising by 146.1%. On the other hand, countries with a very high HDI are expected to see a 41.7% increase in incidence and a 56.8% increase in deaths. Despite high incidence, very high HDI countries, such as Australia, have lower MIR and better survival rates due to advanced health infrastructure and access to early detection and treatment services. Low HDI countries faced challenges in these areas and had higher MIRs.

Men had higher morbidity and mortality rates in 2022, and this gap is expected to widen by up to 16% by 2050. For men, the cancer incidence rate (84.3%) and mortality rate (93.2%) are expected to increase more significantly than for women by 2050, while for women, the incidence rate (84.3%) and mortality rate (93.2%) are expected to increase by 68.5% and mortality rate (85.2%). Factors contributing to this disparity include men’s higher exposure to modifiable risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol use, and underuse of screening and treatment options when available.

The MIR for all cancers was 46.6% in 2022, indicating that almost half of all diagnosed cancer cases resulted in death. The MIR for pancreatic cancer (89.4%) was higher in men (51.7%), people aged 75 years or older (64.3%), low-HDI countries (69.9%), and African regions (67.2%). Africa is expected to see the greatest increase in cancer incidence and mortality, with incidence rates predicted to increase by 139.4% and mortality rates expected to increase by 146.7% by 2050. Europe is expected to have the lowest cancer incidence (24.6%) and death rate (36.4%).