In the previous articles we explained per brand where things went wrong recently, especially in the transition to electric cars. But it is not only the car manufacturers themselves that have failed. The European Commission plays a dubious role and this is reinforced by the policies of many Member States. Due to the reduction or even elimination of incentives, as has recently been happening in France, Germany and the Netherlands, among others, sales of electric cars are stagnating. As a result, many manufacturers, who could not possibly have seen this change coming, have found themselves with a surplus of production capacity. In the meantime, the European Commission plans to significantly tighten the CO2 limit by 2025. This limit means that a car manufacturer may not emit more than 116 grams of CO2 per kilometer on average over all sales. In 2025 that will be 93.6 grams. In addition, the weight corrections no longer apply. Manufacturers have individual corrections to the 116 grams, based on the average weight of their cars. After all, heavier cars emit more. But that also means that the brands with the biggest correction will now be hit hardest. The car will become 2,300 euros more expensive. The fine is 95 euros per car per gram in excess. To get an impression of what amounts you are talking about, we have listed the emissions and volume sold for a number of manufacturers for the whole of 2023 and applied the new CO2 limit to those figures. The Volkswagen Group comes out worst with a fine of 7.7 billion euros. After all, cars of that brand emitted 118 g/km. That is already above the old standard of 116 g/km, but VW enjoyed an individual standard of 123 g/km. With the new standard of 93.6 grams, they are 24.4 grams too high, with a volume of 3.3 million passenger cars. If you include that fine in the cost price of a car, a car from the VW group becomes € 2,300 more expensive to produce. According to this calculation method, Stellantis is number two with a total fine of 2.3 billion euros, just under 1,100 euros per car. Too few EVs in the mix Right now, with increasing competition, especially from Chinese manufacturers who often exclusively build EVs and therefore do not have this problem, this is an extremely difficult situation. To bring CO2 emissions within the standard, you have to get many EVs in your mix and that is precisely where sales are lagging behind, due to measures taken by European member states. To put it bluntly, the individual member states ensure that the European standard is barely achievable, or not at all. And it gets worse. In addition to the BEV, the plug-in hybrid is also an effective way to reduce your emissions. After all, a PHEV emits (on paper) much less than the same car running on petrol alone. Example: the Opel Astra does 125 g/km as a 130 hp petrol, 29 g/km as a 180 hp PHEV. That difference is so large because the WLTP measurement assumes a high proportion of fully electric kilometers. The European Commission believes this is too optimistic and has tightened the so-called utility factor, meaning that type-approved PHEVs will emit roughly twice as much CO2 from this year. This will increase even further in 2027. In many tax regimes, such as the Netherlands, this means that taxes will skyrocket and since PHEVs are a lot more expensive on net, they are hardly or even no longer interesting. For manufacturers, this cuts both ways: due to the higher CO2 values, their PHEVs contribute much less to keeping their total emissions within the standard, and because they will be sold much less, the positive effect on the mix evaporates even further. Lobby ACEA Anyway, there is still a chance that the soup will not be eaten that hot. The European trade association ACEA is lobbying hard in Brussels to relax or postpone the stricter standards. It must be said that they do have a point. After all, the European Commission is forcing them to sell more EVs, while many individual member states are increasingly making this impossible. All is not yet lost: the recent European elections could well turn out to be favorable for the industry, because the EPP came out on top and it is precisely the European People’s Party that is an opponent of the agreement that no new cars with combustion engines will be allowed from 2035. to stand. Furthermore, the EPP wants to keep the tax environment favorable for PHEVs and relax CO2 standards. Perhaps 2025 will not be as bleak as it currently appears. Fines 2025 per manufacturer based on emission and volume 2023 Emission 2023 Total fine Fine per car BMW Group 102 g/km 0.7 billion 800 euros Ford 118 g/km 1.2 billion 2,300 euros Mercedes-Benz 110 g/km 1, 1 billion 1,550 euros Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 109 g/km 1.8 billion 1,450 euros Stellantis 105 g/km 2.3 billion 1,100 euros Volkswagen Group 118 g/km 7.7 billion 2,300 euros
Source: www.autoweek.nl
