Five years ago, the Covid-19 pandemic began in Wuhan, China. What followed were months of confinement, several vaccines and great concern for many people that such a health crisis would happen again. Today, scientists are constantly on the lookout for diseases that could lead to a new pandemic.
Although this can be caused by several pathogens (viruses, bacteria or parasites), some are more likely than others to cause rapid outbreaks, including influenza viruses. And precisely, an article from The Conversation tells us that an influenza virus is causing serious concern at the moment. It would be on the verge of becoming a real problem as 2025 approaches.
The H5N1 subtype of influenza A virus, also known as “bird flu”, is a virus widely distributed among wild and domestic birds, such as poultry. Recently, it has also infected dairy cows in several US states and was found in horses in Mongolia.
When there are many cases of flu in animals, humans fear being infected sooner or later. The problem arises for avian flu, which has already infected sixty-one people in the United States in 2024, mainly following contact between farmers and their livestock or through consumption of milk. In comparison, in the previous two years, only two human cases had been recorded.
All it would take is a mutation
This is therefore a worrying increase, especially when we know that the mortality rate for H5N1 avian flu is 30% for human infections. Fortunately, it does not currently appear to be transmitted from person to person, which greatly reduces the likelihood of it causing a pandemic. But for how much longer?
Influenza viruses must attach to molecular structures, kinds of receptors called “sialic acids” located outside cells, to enter them and reproduce. However, avian flu is very adapted to the sialic acids of birds and much less to those of humans. Thus, in its current form, the H5N1 virus can hardly spread between humans. But a study published on December 5, 2024 revealed that it would only take a single mutation for the virus to be endowed with this capacity, to the point of being able to trigger a pandemic.
If this strain of bird flu mutates, governments will need to act quickly to stop the spread. Centers for Disease Control around the world have already developed plans to prepare for an avian flu pandemic. For example, the United Kingdom has purchased 5 million doses of the H5 vaccine, which provides immunity against bird flu.
For the moment, spread between humans is therefore not relevant. It is for animals that this risks becoming more accentuated. In addition to impacting their health, bird flu can have repercussions on the food supply and the economy. We just have to wish each other good health as we move into 2025.
Source: www.slate.fr
