The expectation that the Fed will continue to reduce interest rates and the possible Trump victory in the US elections lead to sharp pricing in global markets.
Gold ounce price broke a record this week. The estimate of $2,800 per ounce of gold, which is close to historical levels, came from Citi. Citi Research updated its three-month gold and silver price forecasts upwards in its analysis, which took into account the possible deterioration in the US labor market, the Fed’s interest rate cuts and physical and ETF purchases. Accordingly, the estimate for ounce gold, which was 2 thousand 700 dollars, was increased to 2 thousand 800, while the price was announced as 3 thousand dollars in the 6-12 month forecast.
In addition, Citi predicted $40 for silver. Citi analysis on BloombergHT attracted attention with the following statements: “We note that gold and silver have performed extremely well despite weakening Chinese retail physical demand and rising US interest rates since the Fed’s 50 basis point cut and last month’s employment increase. . “Gold may also rise in the scenario of oil prices rising in the Middle East in the near term.”
Already the winner of 2024
Gold appreciated by 34 percent this year. The geopolitical tension centered in the Middle East and Taiwan and the purchases of global central banks are also effective in the strengthening of gold, which is the most increasing main commodity this year. The World Gold Council announced that central banks’ gold purchases in 2023 reached 1,037 tons, exceeding 1,000 metric tons for the second time in a row. Again, according to the council’s statement, central banks’ gold demand reached 183 tons in the second quarter of the year. There was a 6 percent increase on an annual basis.
Net purchases in the first half of the year increased by 5 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching 483 tons. Data for the third quarter has not been shared yet, but according to Reuters’ news last week, it was reported at the annual conference of the London Bullion Markets Association held in Miami that central banks continue to be willing to buy gold to diversify their reserves for financial or strategic reasons. One of the main reasons why central banks have been stockpiling more gold recently is to diversify reserves in order to protect against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical shocks.
Will Uncle Nadir’s prediction come true?
Gold, which has always been considered a safe haven, remains an indispensable instrument in investors’ portfolios. Different predictions for gold prices also come to the fore from time to time. Citi’s ounce price estimate of $3,000 is the most current one.
However, wild estimates such as 4 thousand dollars, 5 thousand dollars, even 10 and 40 thousand dollars are also made. In a previous statement to DÜNYA Editor-in-Chief Recep Erçin, Jewelery Exporters’ Association (MİB) President Burak Yak conveyed Nadir Metal’s Founder Nadir Tütüncü’s prediction on gold prices as follows: “When gold prices were 250 dollars/ounce, the late Nadir Uncle said it would be 500. While 2 thousand dollars/ounce was being talked about, he said, “It will be 5 thousand dollars.” I think this will happen. Because gold is a commodity whose supply is limited and demand is always high in the world.”
Source: www.dunya.com
