Less than a month remains until the publication of the next quarterly report by the Dutch company ASML, but industry analysts are already forming their own recommendations for the securities of this supplier of equipment for the production of chips, based on the less than favorable situation in the Chinese market and Intel’s refusal to build factories in Germany.
Image source: ASML
Formally, Intel has only recently announced its intention to refrain from implementing the project to build two advanced factories in Germany worth a total of 30 billion euros due to problems with its financing, but anything can happen during a two-year pause, and therefore not all experts are sure that construction will begin at all. In any case, Intel will not need additional ASML equipment in the next two years, which means that the Dutch supplier will miss out on some of the potential benefits.
This is the thinking of Morgan Stanley representatives, whose comments were cited by Reuters. In July and August, ASML shares had already lost 30% in value, and the publication of Morgan Stanley’s comments this week provoked a further 2.7% decline in the rate. Morgan Stanley representatives reduced their forecast for their share price from 925 to 800 euros per share, with the current rate being around 796 euros. In addition to the impact of Intel’s latest decisions to reduce spending on building new plants, ASML shares will be subject to pressure from the RAM market, which is unlikely to show growth in demand in the foreseeable future, except for the HBM segment.
In addition, by 2026, the Chinese market will cease to be the main driver of revenue growth for ASML, as analysts suggest. Now it provides up to half of the company’s revenue, but in combination with the strengthening of sanctions, it will begin to show oversaturation in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, it will no longer be able to show the previous growth rates. Moreover, sanctions from the Dutch and US authorities may also increase. On the other hand, 2025 will be a successful year for ASML in many respects, because the advanced equipment of this brand will continue to be in high demand against the backdrop of the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence.
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Source: 3dnews.ru
