The 19th annual report from the Global Carbon Project, an organization which quantifies greenhouse gas emissions around the world, does not really encourage optimism, despite some encouraging signs. “CO2 emissions remain on an upward trend, notes Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, from the University of Exeter (United Kingdom), who led the study. They should reach +0.8% in 2024. This remains very insufficient compared to the objectives of the Paris Agreements.
The study forecasts 37.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of fossil origin. Emissions linked to land use change such as deforestation would amount to 4.2 billion tonnes, bringing the total to 41.6 billion tonnes compared to 40.6 billion in 2023. If CO2 emissions linked to fossil continued to increase over the last ten years, with the exception of the Covid episode, emissions mainly linked to deforestation fell. But the fires, notably caused by the El Nino episode of 2023-24, have changed the trajectory.
“There is no indication that the use of fossil fuels has peaked, while the effects of climate change are increasingly dramatic,” worries Pierre Friedlingstein. Hence the imperative need at COP 29 in Baku to see States accelerate their commitments to the climate transition and increase funding for developing countries.
Sharp increase in fossil consumption in India
The most striking example among the countries cited in the study is that of India, whose emissions (8% of the world total) are expected to increase by 4.6% with an increase in the consumption of coal, oil and gas. The pace of renewable energy deployment is not enough to absorb the increase in demand. The good performers remain the Europe of 27, with an expected drop of 3.8%, and to a lesser extent the United States (-0.6%). But we will still have to accelerate to contain the increase in temperatures to +2°C at the end of the century.
China soon at the top of the peak
Some countries could soon join the pack of good students. This is the case for China, whose increase in emissions may not exceed 0.2% this year. Recently, the Chinese government indicated that the peak of fossil emissions could be reached before the 2030 objective. Perhaps as early as 2025 or 2026. This is a good sign when we know that the second largest economy in the world concentrates 32% of total CO2 emissions.
Regarding the COP 29 which is currently being held in Baku, Pierre Friedlingstein believes in an interview with L’Usine Nouvelle that «this COP will be mainly financial and probably not completely negative. Financial commitments for adaptation are insufficient. I remain moderately optimistic, because China has really decided to engage in the energy transition. The American delegation will not have much to say. And it is certain that the return of Donald Trump will have a negative impact on the decline in emissions over the coming years, but perhaps less than feared.” Wait and see !
Source: www.usinenouvelle.com
