The signature collection for the referendum against Differentiated Autonomy has begun, but the unknown quorum weighs on the vote. The analyses conducted by Ipsos and Noto Sondaggi leave open the questions on the minimum participation required for the referendum to be valid. Let’s see what emerged.
The collection of signatures for the referendum against the‘Differentiated autonomy, the reform approved by Parliament and written by Minister Roberto Calderoli. In addition to the mobilization of Emilia-Romagna, Puglia, Tuscany, Sardinia and Campania, all regions led by the center-left, the main opposition leaders took to the streets to involve citizens in what has now become a common battle for the Democratic Party, the 5 Star Movement, the Green-Left Alliance and Italia Viva.
But while Giuseppe Conte, Elly Schlein and the Bonelli-Fratoianni duo were in the main squares of the country to collect signatures, some have wondered whether the referendum will be able to reach the minimum participation required to be valid, that is, 50% plus one of those entitled to vote. Both Ipsos and Noto Sondaggi have conducted surveys, which leave open the questions about the quorum. Let’s see what the two surveys say.
According to Ipsos, only 33% of those entitled to vote will go to vote
The estimates on participation in the referendum against differentiated autonomy, carried out by Ipsos for the Corriere della Sera, predict that only a third of the voters would be willing to go to the polls. Although 58% of those interviewed would like to see the League’s flagship reform repealed (against 42% of those in favor), according to these numbers the threshold required for the referendum to be valid would still be far away.
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In fact, only 33% would be willing to vote, while 26% said they were still unsure. Added to this is the lack of knowledge that Italians have about the reform in question. Among the participants, only 16% said they were adequately informed, 29% said they had come into contact with some news, while 55% did not know what it was about. “It is certainly too early to say anything solid about the referendum vote. For now, we can say that attention on the issue is not growing”, the Institute comments.
Estimated participation at 55% for Noto: quorum possible
Contrary to the results of Ipsos, according to Noto Sondaggi the referendum consultation could reach the quorum of validity. For the Demoscopic Institute the 55% of those entitled to vote at the moment he would be willing to vote for the abrogative referendum, with a higher percentage among citizens of the southern regions (68%). “If this estimate is respected – the pollsters write – the referendum has a good chance of being valid, even with a fair margin”.
An interesting fact also concerns the voting intentions of voters willing to go to the polls. 68% are close to the positions of the PD, 95% sympathize with the Left Green Alliance. “However – the Institute observes – it is also worth noting that the propensity to enter the voting booth also involves 68% of Forza Italia voters while among the followers of FdI it drops to 44% and among the Lega supporters it still reaches 58%”.
Source: www.fanpage.it
