Dilemma: Checking North Korea or collaborating with Trump or providing arms support to Ukraine (News Analysis)

Ahead of the inauguration of the second Trump administration in the United States, Ukraine sent a special envoy to Korea and made a formal ‘request for arms support’. The government has hinted at the possibility of providing lethal weapons to counter North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia, but has not made any progress in its position since former President Donald Trump, who pledged to end the war, won the presidential election. Considering the relationship with the second Trump administration and relations with Russia after the end of the war in Ukraine or a ceasefire, some analysts say that the government will not have much room to maneuver. It is also highly likely that the mention of the possibility of weapons support was intended to pressure Russia to prevent it from strengthening cooperation with North Korea, rather than with actual support in mind.

Experts advise that “the security situation on the Korean Peninsula is precarious” and that “decisions should be made cool-headedly and carefully, prioritizing national interests rather than hasty and emotional judgments.”

The President’s Office announced that President Yoon Seok-yeol met with a special envoy dispatched by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the 27th. It is known that the special envoys entered the country through Incheon Airport on a Polish flight this morning.

President Yoon welcomed the special envoys led by Minister of National Defense Rustem Umerow and said, “I hope that both countries will devise effective countermeasures to deal with security threats caused by Russian-North Korean military cooperation, including North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia.” said. At this meeting, the special envoy exchanged information on the war situation with President Yoon and reportedly requested weapons support. Ukraine is known to have requested air defense system support from Korea.

After paying a courtesy visit to the President, the special envoy met with National Security Office Director Shin Won-sik and National Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to discuss cooperation between the two countries. The President’s Office reported that Special Envoy Umerow expressed gratitude for the various supports provided by the Korean government and explained in detail the recent situation in Ukraine and the trends in North Korea’s troop dispatches. The two countries agreed to continue to cooperate with friendly countries by continuing to share information on North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia and the transfer of weapons and technology between North Korea and Russia.

So far, the government has continued to provide humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine in line with the tone of the US Biden administration. In particular, after it was revealed that the North Korean military had dispatched troops to Russia, they began mentioning that they could support lethal weapons. President Yoon said on the 24th of last month, “We had a principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons, but we can review it more flexibly depending on the activities of the North Korean military,” and at a press conference on the 7th, he also said, “Weapons support depending on the degree of involvement of the North Korean military.” “We will not rule it out,” he said, adding, “If we provide weapons support, we are considering defensive weapons first.”

It was at this time that the government policy was issued to “respond in stages according to the progress of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.” The standard is expected to be whether the North Korean military participates in combat on the actual battlefield. A senior official in the Presidential Office met with reporters on the 30th of last month and said, “The decisive criterion for escalating measures is the start of the battle in Ukraine in which North Korean troops participated.”

As President-elect Trump puts pressure on the international community to end the war in Ukraine early, a change in mood is also felt within the government. This is because the government has remained silent even after it became known that the North Korean army began fighting with the Ukrainian army. It is also a burden for our government that U.S. National Security Advisor-designate Michael Waltz said in a recent interview with Fox News that President-elect Trump recently expressed concerns about the escalation of war in Ukraine, including Korea’s intervention.

Under these circumstances, the Ukrainian special envoy’s visit to Korea appears to have been aimed at maximizing support and support from the international community before the Trump administration took office. This is because the President’s Office has also stated that discussions can begin when a special envoy comes to Korea.

However, the fact that the President’s Office and the Ministry of National Defense neither denied nor confirmed the visit to Korea until the day before the special envoy’s visit to Korea reflects the government’s situation of being unable to state its position on support for Ukraine. A Ministry of Defense official drew the line, saying, “There is currently nothing being reviewed at the Ministry of Defense level regarding weapons support to Ukraine.” There is also a plan to send an observer team to Ukraine, but this is one of the plans that our government is considering because it is necessary, not what the Ukrainian government wants.

Experts say that we must be cautious about weapons support, but that there is a need to leave it as an option to check military cooperation, such as Russia’s transfer of core military technology to North Korea. Jin-ho Doo, head of the International Strategy Research Department at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyzes, said, “North Korea has dispatched 10,000 troops, and there is a high possibility of additional troops being dispatched, so as this is an issue that ultimately poses a security threat to South Korea, various options, including weapons support, must be kept open and evaluated,” adding, “Especially to Ukraine.” “Weapons support to South Korea could be leverage to prevent Russia from deepening cooperation with North Korea,” he said.

This is why Russia has recently issued a strong message to block arms support from Korea. The battlefield situation is becoming more intense, with Western countries recently authorizing the use of domestically produced missiles to strike Russian territory in Ukraine, and Korea’s weapons support could also be a major variable.

Park Won-gon, a professor at the Graduate School of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, said, “The battlefield situation of the Ukraine war is complex, and the Trump administration has not yet been inaugurated, so there is no official end-of-war plan, so isn’t it a situation where we need to move more cautiously now?” There is a need to discuss support and economic support. “It is necessary to pave the way in the form of support for Ukraine’s reconstruction,” he said.

Reporters Gu Hyeon-mo and Park Ji-won

(ⓒ Segye Ilbo & Segye.com, unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited)