Donald Trump is increasingly ahead in the polls against Kamala Harris and may arrive at the elections as the favourite

Trump is favored. All the main predictive models on American election polls give the Republican candidate the lead over Kamala Harris, but the race remains very uncertain.

What the latest polls say about the US elections

In recent weeks, polls for the American elections have begun to favor Donald Trump, a trend not seen since before the debate between the Republican candidate and the vice president Kamala Harris.

American elections work in such a way, however, that individuals polls, especially national ones, cannot really be significant to a candidate’s chances of winning.

Kamala Harris

This is why predictive models exist, which by combining various factors with surveys return a probability of victory. Both the most accredited models agree: Donald Trump has about a 53% chance of winning the elections.

Why Trump is favored for the White House

The surveys they delivered to Trump this advantage shows a general swing of the US electorate towards the Republican party. The tycoon is favored or essentially tied in all the swing states.

Trump consolidated his lead in Georgia and Arizona, which are expected to vote for him in 63% of cases, he questioned the “Blue Wall”, with Pennsylvania, Michigan e Wisconsin all at about 50%, and he also brought North Carolina, Republican at 58%, back into his orbit.

One of the main predictive models, that of the pollster Nate Silver, showed from Harris’s candidacy an oscillation between the chances of victory of the two candidates with periods of about a month. If this trend were to be confirmed, Trump would reach the peak of his advantage over Harris by November 5, election day.

What options do Harris have left

Although the polling data are negative for the Democrats, the race for White House it is still very open, among the most open ever. Harris still has about the same chance of winning as Trump.

It will be the vote of “Blue Wall”, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which will most likely decide the outcome of these elections. A Democratic breakthrough in these areas could overturn pollsters’ forecasts.

Then there is the so-called “October surprise”, the October surprise, an event that very often upsets the electoral campaign a few days before the vote. In 2020 it was the mass Covid-19 infection in the White House, in 2016 the WikiLeaks campaign.

Photo source: ANSA