Four years after his defeat against Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trump should achieve the feat of winning the popular vote and all the key states, facing a weaker Kamala Harris than in the polls. The Republicans will also win Congress and the Senate.
On November 5, 2024, the United States voted. After two years of campaigning, the name of the 47th American president, who will take office on January 20, 2025, is finally known. Il is Donald Trumpwhich should exceed 270 voters once the count is completed.
At 7:55 a.m. on November 6, Fox News became the first media to proclaim the name of the new president-elect. Even if some large cities have not finished counting, Donald Trump is only a few small victories away from winning the election, while Kamala Harris is given the loser in all the swing states.
Polls that put him neck-and-neck with Kamala Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were wrong. Donald Trump and his supporters are already claiming victory, while Kamala Harris has decided not to speak in the evening, like Hillary Clinton in 2016.
New York Times indicator predicts Trump with over 95% chance
The New York Times, which offers one of the best sites for following the results in real time, has had an algorithm responsible for predicting the outcome of the election since 2016. If he has been wrong several times in the past (he gave Hillary Clinton a 99% winner at the start of the 2016 count), he generally turns out to be quite correct once the first ballots are counted. The NYT algorithm is based in particular on the progress of the counting in key states to determine the chances of reversal of the curve.
According to this famous algorithm, Donald Trump was never threatened throughout election night. At 7 a.m., the billionaire exceeded the 95% chance of being elected president of the United States, the maximum communicated by the system. Kamala Harris never seemed capable of overturning the election.
According to the New York Times system, Donald Trump should obtain between 276 and 322 electoral votes, with a high chance of finishing at 306. To win, Donald Trump needs 270 votes. Since this threshold has already been reached, Donald Trump has won.
The popular vote, which no Republican has won since 2004, could also fall into Donald Trump’s camp. The red wave is expected to surpass those of 2016 and 2020, while Democrats collapse. This means that a majority of Americans, combining all states, preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris.
On speculative sites, such as Polymarket, this trend is also felt. Donald Trump has gone from a 60% chance to a 99% chance, as his defeat seems less and less likely.
How to explain this advance? Donald Trump currently dominates in all the key states, those where the election is being played out. He won important states like Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, giving him a very large lead. Kamala Harris, for her part, lost in all swing states.
The red wave does not stop at the presidential election: as in 2016, the Republicans are taking control of the Senate and Congress, which should guarantee great flexibility to President-elect Donald Trump.
Can Kamala Harris Still Flip the 2024 Election?
Can Kamala Harris still win? In 2020, Donald Trump also dominated in the night, before being overtaken by Joe Biden and the counting of postal votes, which took place over several days.
The Democratic camp has long hoped for a similar outcome, but it is now unlikely. Kamala Harris can win by flipping every key state, but she’s trailing everywhere. Donald is guaranteed to win the US presidential election, in a scenario similar to that of 2016.
“Jet, set and match” Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the Republicans claim victory
At 8:09 a.m. on November 6, Donald Trump officially claimed victory, announcing that he would speak for his “victory speech”. Earlier, his supporters had spilled the beans.
Elon Musk sees this announced victory as proof that X, ex-Twitter, is not a bubble. The billionaire tweeted a “Game, set and match”while he is currently in Donald Trump’s home in Florida, to follow the results of the election, The red wave also delights the “cryptosphere”, which Donald Trump massively supports. Many supporters of Donald Trump see his victory as proof that the media no longer exists, and that information now comes through social networks.
How will the world react to Donald Trump’s victory?
When they wake up on November 6, the whole world will discover Donald Trump’s victory. It probably won’t be as shocking as in 2016, when no one saw it coming, but the billionaire pulled it off.
By winning the 2024 election, Donald Trump achieves a « come-back » unprecedented in the history of American politics. Bad loser in 2020, persona non grata all over the world, convicted of crimes, responsible for an attempted insurrection and accustomed to controversies, the Republican is preparing to achieve the revenge of the century. The markets should have a special day on November 6, with probably very different reactions to Donald Trump’s victory.
Source: www.numerama.com
