The catastrophic series of flash floods that hit Bosnia and Herzegovina last week was caused by extreme rainfall, after a severe drought – but with flash floods, the condition of the land and the shape of the terrain are always important factors, he writes for Climate 101 Dr. Ana Vuković Vimić.
Therefore, heavy rainfall, poor infiltration of water into the soil, high slope of the terrain and bare land created a deadly wave of mud and stones. The floods took away the lives and homes of the residents of Donja Jablanica, Fojnica, and Konjica.
Serbia remained in the marginal areas affected by the cyclones, so major damage was avoided.
But just a few weeks earlier, Europe experienced extreme rainfall and flooding on a much larger scale, due to Storm Boris.
Storm Boris, having affected areas in Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, only in its border area affected those regions where extreme drought had previously prevailed throughout the summer, including Serbia and most of the Balkans.
Therefore, extreme droughts and floods were mostly avoided in Europe this season – but in the areas where their actions overlapped, the consequences of the joint action of these growing climate hazards occurred, which we will witness more and more often in the future.
Measures implemented as protection against only one hazard (e.g. drought) may have the opposite effect in case of complex events (e.g. drought and intense rain).
The combined effects of climate hazards are a consequence of the increased variability of weather conditions due to climate change, and can have significantly greater consequences than the effects of only one type of extreme weather conditions.
If inadequate land and water management is added to that, high risks to the health and safety of the population await us. The recent event in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with more than 20 victims, showed how dangerous it is to ignore the growing extreme weather phenomena associated with environmental degradation.
If the combined effects of climate hazards are not taken into account in the planning of measures to protect us from growing climate hazards, the outcomes can be completely wrong.
For this reason, it is important to always include the latest scientific research in this area and to have close communication with science in the creation of interventions.
From the global aspect of policy making, when drought comes up as a topic for implementation in strategies and policies, the focus is mainly on arid and semi-arid areas of the Earth, through policies within the framework of sustainable land management.
On the other hand, the danger of the combined effects of droughts and intense rainfall, as well as the huge impact of climate change on land degradation and availability of water resources, is not recognized.
The consequences of this problem can be far-reaching, because adaptation measures to exclusively drought can have the opposite effect in relation to such complex events – for example, if a measure to retain water in the soil is issued as a recommendation in the fight against drought, and then in the place where such a measure is implemented implements a large amount of precipitation.
We could even see the combined effects on the fields of Vojvodina last year, when there were dust storms and then floods in the fields.
Although Serbia recognizes the growing risks of climate hazards, there is no adequate implementation of measures, even those that have been proven successful
The problem of recognizing the growing dangers of combined effects also exists at the level of the United Nations, mostly within the framework of the implementation of the activities of the Rio Conventions (three conventions dealing with problems: climate change, land degradation and the problem of biodiversity conservation).
Serbia is already insufficiently recognized in the relevant international organizations when it comes to the danger of drought; there is no mention of the consequences of combined droughts and rainfall.
Serbia and other countries of the region actually recognize the growing problems of drought and the increasing degree of aridity of climatic conditions, but also the increased dangers of intense precipitation, rising temperatures, storms, fires, etc. They regularly report on climate change in their territory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, through reports submitted by state governments.
Citizens can even read what and how quickly climate hazards and climate variability are growing in Serbia in the Adaptation Program to Changed Climate Conditions, which was adopted by the Government of the Republic of Serbia in December 2023, which means that it has officially adopted these phenomena as expected. danger in the state.
However, despite this, there is no adequate implementation of the measures that have shown positive results so far.
It is important to understand that the problem of combined effects of climate hazards will grow until the middle of the 21st century and that this is our new reality.
The effects of global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be seen in the second half of the century, which means that there are two possible outcomes: either climate change will stabilize with those new features that will emerge (warmer with stronger extreme conditions) or it will continue to are intensifying (acceleration of temperature rise and strengthening of extremes).
Since “return to the old” is an unattainable goal at the moment, it is inevitable to implement measures to reduce these risks, and thus to reduce future growing damages, especially in order to preserve lives and resources for life.
This implies the implementation of climate change adaptation measures, which are often not in the public’s focus as much as carbon dioxide emissions, but it is adaptation that has the task of saving people, nature and infrastructure.
The main drawback in Serbia and the region (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro) is precisely the neglect of investment in institutions that are crucial for the safety of people in conditions of climate change, such as the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute and the Environmental Protection Agency.
It should not be forgotten that existing pollution problems are also intensified due to the consequences of climate change. What systems should look like for monitoring hazards and warning people, and even educating people, can be seen just these days when Florida is preparing for the impact of Hurricane Milton. Finally, one more important insight: such systems require far less investment than the consequences of climate change have cost us so far.
Source: Climate 101
Source: energetskiportal.rs
