In September 1933, American meteorologist Joseph Kincer asked a simple question: Is the climate changing? Thus began the effort to understand the extent of humanity’s influence on the climate. By studying temperatures measured in various places around the world, Kincer concluded that the Earth was warming, but without suggesting a cause.
A few years later, in 1938, British engineer Guy Callendar demonstrated that Earth’s temperatures had risen by about 0.3°C over the previous 50 years, arguing that this warming was largely caused by increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide generated from burning coal.
The earth is warming at a very rapid rate. Today, measurements from thousands of weather stations, satellites and ships are combined with weather forecast models to provide a detailed picture of how the climate is changing, both in the short and long term. Negotiators meeting at Cop29 in Azerbaijan are discussing a critical juncture: the last two years, 2023 and 2024, were the warmest on record, with temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels.
Earth is warming at the fastest rate ever recorded
Although it took a century for the Earth to warm by 0.3°C, the global temperature has risen by 1°C in just the last 60 years. This acceleration is mainly driven by human-made greenhouse gas emissions:
Rising emissions lead to accelerating global warming. Cutting emissions slows the pace, but warming continues until emissions reach net zero.
The heating is not uniform. Land regions are warming faster than oceans, too Arctic it heats up to four times faster than the global average.
Natural and political factors
Before 1970, slight global cooling was caused by reflective aerosols also from burning fossil fuels. After the 1960s, clean air policies reduced the influence of aerosols, allowing warming to become dominant. Before World War II, natural variations in climate played a larger role, and early industrialization had a slow impact.
2025 could be cooler than 2024 due to the transition to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the cooler phase of the natural El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. However, in the long term, the average global temperature is predicted to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next decade.
Decisions made in the coming years will determine whether we can limit warming to 1.6°C or 1.7°C, or whether the planet will continue to warm, amplifying the climate consequences. The severe impacts of higher temperatures, such as sea level rise, extreme weather events and ecosystem degradation, will depend on the actions taken by governments and societies at this critical time, pointed out Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading (England ), for Science Alert.
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Source: www.descopera.ro
