Embarrassed Tesla: first annual decline in 12 years and 50% growth in sight, quarterly OK

Elon Musk is a man of many promises, the fulfillment of which usually takes longer than originally planned (although there are exceptions). In any case, it has results, it must be acknowledged, but it is often quite stiff. Some promises, however, have faded into obscurity. Tesla, for example a few years ago, it planned to increase its annual production by 50% per year in the long term, but this should not mean that it should achieve this 50% every year, but that it should be a long-term growth average. Even for 2023, long-term growth was more or less maintained, although specific one-year growth was quite far from 50% (it was only 38%). But in 2024, it’s a problem. The company failed to grow at all. For the first time since 2011, there was a decrease in annual production.

For 2023, it delivered 1.81 million cars, while for 2024 it was 1.79 million. This is a slight 1.1% decrease, which would not be a problem if much more was not planned. After all, Tesla had a vision to produce roughly 20 million cars a year by 2030, which is roughly as many as the two largest automobile concerns in the world combined. This has been over half a year does not figure in the company’s plans and it quietly disappeared from the company’s records. The car company’s long-term annual growth has now fallen to around 36%, and we are already well below the planned 50%. On the graph above, we can see that the development trend is far from being close to exponential growth (polynomial and exponential extrapolation were almost identical in the past, now they are completely different, I don’t even want to show the optimistic nonsense that the exponential shows), rather we see a linear trend here. If it could be maintained, Tesla’s deliveries for the year 2025 could be estimated at around 2.3 million cars, but for now it looks more like the curve wants to bend in the other direction and stagnate. If I choose a polynomial of the third degree for extrapolation, it looks much more pessimistic for Tesla (about 1.65-1.7 million cars).

Estimated deliveries of Tesla cars for 2025

But everything is not as black as it may seem now. With the number of 495,570 cars (471,930 Model 3/Y and 23,640 Model S/X/Cybertruck), the fourth quarter of 2024 is a record, and thus the best in the history of the brand in terms of the number of cars delivered. This quarter also saw more car deliveries compared to production (usually Tesla haters argue that Tesla has higher production than deliveries to indicate a lack of interest, but the opposite was true this quarter).

We can only guess what is behind it. It may be Musk’s increasingly frequent excesses (the question is how much supporting Donald Trump in the presidential election helped/harmed him), the long-awaited modernization will probably also have its weight the best-selling car in the world, the Model Y. Juniper, as the new version is called, should be introduced to the Chinese market already this January. There are interested parties waiting for the new version to be released, which may have contributed to last year’s decline.

Cybertruck sales are nowhere near where pre-orders were supposed to be, Tesla is also still missing a long-promised cheaper model priced around $25,000 (and let’s face it, the market for more expensive EVs is getting pretty saturated, while in the “Western “The low-end offer is still awaited, and China is beginning to cover this quite a bit, both at home and in, for example, Europe). Tesla’s car portfolio is aging (the Model S is almost 13 years old, the Model X will be 10 this year, but they’ve never been big sales drivers) and the absence of new models, although the existing ones are constantly being upgraded, may also make existing users less eager to upgrade.

Source: www.svethardware.cz