Emmanuel Macron visiting Latin America, under pressure from all sides

DIPLOMACY – Emmanuel Macron is touring Latin American countries, between Argentina, Brazil and Chile, from this Saturday November 16 to Thursday November 21. And the president’s schedule is busy since before participating in the G20 summit in Rio, he must meet Argentinian Javier Milei to talk about climate and then strengthen bilateral relations with his Chilean counterpart Gabriel Boric. But in this diplomatic quadrille, it will have to balance on a fragile thread: that of Mercosur.

The French president is under pressure from all sides: in France by the peasant protests and almost the entire political class, in Brussels by the European Commission and in Latin America by the countries concerned by this free trade agreement. However, the European Union is determined to sign it by the end of the year, much to the dismay of Paris.

Before the head of state crosses the Atlantic, the Élysée insists on the fact that it is not he who has the final decision on the subject but the European Commission. To ease the tensions which could again inflame the French countryside, he therefore has no other choice than to repeat his opposition to this agreement concluded in 2019, but negotiated for around twenty years.

A treaty rejected from all sides in France

On October 17, the president reiterated all the bad things he thought about this free trade agreement negotiated between the European Union and Mercosur and some countries, such as Germany, demand rapid conclusion. « Mercosur, as it stands, is not an acceptable treaty. We demand substantial compliance with the Paris Agreements (on the climate, Editor’s note)mirror clauses and the protection of the interests of European industries and farmers”he declared after a European summit in Brussels.

France will not accept the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement “ under current conditions »insisted Michel Barnier on Wednesday in Brussels. “I recommend that we do not ignore the position of a country like France”he warned, after a meeting with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

More than 600 French parliamentarians (deputies, senators and European deputies) also wrote to Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday to mark their opposition to the treaty. For their part, the farmers are preparing to go to war again against him. The FNSEA and the Young Farmers are therefore calling for new demonstrations from Monday.

Insist on the “ loyalty » and the “ reciprocity »

Aware that the accomplishment of this treaty could ignite the powder once again in his country, Emmanuel Macron will have to be firm during his trip to South America. He will repeat, announces the Élysée, the need for France to sign trade agreements which contain reciprocity clauses and production standards “ which are considered loyal and reciprocal between countries ».

According to critics of the agreement, it could lead to unfair competition, jeopardizing the economic viability of European production. The lower initial price of South American products highlights the divergent social and environmental standards between the two regions. The differences in the use of pesticides between Europe and South America, or even the use of animal proteins, are a symbol of this.

Failing to be able to influence the decision of the European Commission, how can Emmanuel Macron take advantage of his trip to try to tip the scales in his favor? It is undoubtedly not on the other side of the Atlantic that he will find the best allies.

Macron in search of a blocking minority

For the text not to be adopted, France has above all a blocking minority in the European Union. “ At least four states, representing more than 35% of the population of the European Union, must formally oppose ratification to prevent it,” explain to West France Marie-Pierre Vedrenne, Macronist MEP.

For the moment, only Poland and Italy say they are opposed to the treaty, while Germany and Spain, which between them represent almost 30% of the EU population, are pushing for it. adoption.

On the side of the Élysée this Thursday, we recall that other countries have publicly expressed reservations, without being able to predict for the moment ” how far will their position go » and whether they will oppose it. “ Some raised questions on subjects such as the impact on the environment and/or on agriculturecontinues a presidential advisor. This is the case for Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and Ireland. Others on the legal form of the agreement, in particular on the possibility of decoupling the commercial part from the political part, this was the case of Cyprus and Greece ».

A subject that Emmanuel Macron will be able to address during the G20 in Rio next week. And with which he will have to skillfully juggle in the face of the Chilean and Brazilian presidents and especially the ultraliberal Argentinian Javier Milei whom, underlines the Élysée, he hopes to rally to the ” consensus international » on major global issues, including climate.