Europa League qualification calculations after Rangers

After 4-1 with RFS Riga, 1-0 to PAOK Thessaloniki and 0-4 on the field of Glasgow Rangers, the Romanian champion has important chances to qualify from the Europa League group. The latest result, at Ibrox Park, has a major impact on calculations and scenarios for FCSB, again ProSport it shows you how the standings look now and exactly how many points the Romanian champion needs to get out of the group, either towards the sixteenth place, or directly into the eighth!

Europa League 2024/2025 is the first edition in the new format: a single group with 36 clubs, each of them playing 8 games, of which 4 at home and 4 away. The entire competitive phase runs from September 25 to January 30, 2025.

In the end, therefore, we have only one ranking. Places 1-8 qualify for the Europa League round of 16, places 9-24 qualify for a double-leg play-off, the equivalent of the sixteenth, while places 25-36 are out of European competitions for this season.

Places 1-8: Europa League final qualifiers

3 stages out of the eight scheduled in the Europa League group were played, here is the ranking and goal difference of each team at the moment:

9 points: Lazio (+8), Tottenham (+5), Anderlecht (+4)

7 points: Ajax Amsterdam (+7), Galatasaray (+3), Eintracht Frankfurt (+3), Midtjylland (+3), Athletic Bilbao (+3)

Places 9-24: Europa League play-off qualification (round of 16)

7 points: Bodo Glimt (+2)

6 points: Lyon (+4), Glasgow Rangers (+3), Olympiakos (+2), FCSB (0)

5 points: Fenerbahce (+1)

4 points: Slavia Prague (+1), FC Porto (+1), Real Sociedad (0), AS Roma (0), Hoffenheim (0)

3 points: Viktoria Plzen (0), Man United (0), Elfsborg (-1), Ferencvaros (-1), Alkmaar (-2)

Places 25-36: out of European competitions

3 points: Malmo (-2), Braga (-3), Beşiktaş (-5)

2 points: Twente Enschede (-2)

1 point: Union St. Gilloise (-2), PAOK Thessaloniki (-3), RFS Riga (-4), Nice (-4), Ludogorets Razgrad (-4)

0 points: Maccabi Tel Aviv (-4), Dinamo Kiev (-6), Qarabag (-7)

The most likely scenario: victory and two draws for FCSB 100% in the sixteenth

With 6 points accumulated, after three stages and the defeat in front of Glasgow Rangers, the champion of Romania still has something to shoot for to be qualified 100% in the play-off after the Europa League group, the equivalent of the sixteenth.

She would need at least 11 points to be 100% sure of this outcome. So, at least 5 points for FCSB to get from the 5 games left to play, a mission that is not at all impossible.

The fastest and most likely would seem the following scenario, which would mean that FCSB would reach 11 points already after the next three scheduled games:

• win with Midtjylland at home
• draw with Olympiakos at home
• draw with Hoffenheim away

Of course, the away draw with Hoffenheim can also be replaced with an away draw at Qarabag (more affordable, theoretically). And two home wins in the next two rounds, against Midtjylland and Olympiakos, would happily close the round of sixteen calculations even faster.

But, beware! Even if FCSB only get four points, the chances of qualifying from places 9-24 in the round of 16 of the Europa League are 98% for a team with 10 points in the final standings.

Ideal scenario: undefeated until the end and three wins for 100% in the round of 16!

For a final ranking on places 1-8 in the Europa League group and, implicitly, qualification directly to the round of 16, FCSB needs 17 points to be 100% sure, but with 16 points it has a 98% chance and with only 15 points 73% qualify.

As Gigi Becali’s team has accumulated 6 points, in order to obtain another 11 points from the five stages left to be played and to be clear in the round of 16 of the Europa League, in the most likely scenario, they would need the following results, chronologically:

• win with Midtjylland at home
• win with Olympiakos at home
• equal to Hoffenheim away
• victory with Qarabag away
• draw with Man United at home

Of course, it’s the same if FCSB draw with Olympiakos and get the win at Qarabag. In any case, the last match in the group, at home with Manchester United, would be one without pressure, a real celebration!

The dream scenario: with three wins from five matches, FCSB is 73% in the eighth!

But for at least 15 points obtained by FCSB at the end of the group, a total that would ensure in a proportion of 73% the qualification directly to the round of 16 of the Europa League through a ranking on places 1-8, the following scenario seems most likely:

• win with Midtjylland at home
• victory with Olympiakos at home
• away win with Qarabag

How these scenarios were arrived at for FCSB in the Europa League

The link between the number of points obtained by a team and the ranking it can obtain is the conclusion of an analytical approach carried out by the company’s analysts Eight.

Based on it, ProSport calculated all the probable scenarios for FCSB in the Europa League, developing including the variants of results that the Romanian champion needs in the last remaining matches in the group for different classifications.

Here are the final ranking probabilities with qualification to the upper stages for all final scores achieved by a team:

• Minimum 17 points – 100% places 1-8
• 16 points – 98% places 1-8
• 15 points – 73% places 1-8 and 27% places 9-24
• 14 points – 28% places 1-8 and 72% places 9-24
• 13 points – 2% places 1-8 and 98% places 9-24
• 11-12 points – 100% places 9-24
• 10 points – 98% places 9-24
• 9 points – 69% places 9-24
• 8 points – 16% places 9-24
• 7 points – 1% places 9-24

Discover the ideal team of the last stage of the Superliga, with two FCSB players in the first 11 after the derby with Dinamo!