Recep ERÇİN
Hakan Aran, General Manager of Türkiye İş Bankası, with whom we met on the occasion of the International Resort Tourism Congress held in Antalya, Turkey’s number one mass tourism region, said, “When I saw the inflation in October, I took my expectations for November off the table. I expect a discount in December.
There should be a discount that will give the country a breath of fresh air. I do not expect a boom in any type of credit, especially housing. As results are achieved in the fight against inflation, I expect relaxation in macroprudential measures and rule sets. “Interest rate cuts will come faster, but the loosening of the rule set will not happen at the same pace,” he said.
‘Interest rate cut will give us all a breather’
Stating that 2025 will be an active year in terms of mergers and acquisitions, Hakan Aran predicted that all businesses, regardless of sector, especially small businesses, will have their share of the liquidity squeeze and may have difficulties. Stating that “It will give us all a breather” for the interest rate reduction cycle, Hakan Aran said “I wish” for the end of 2025 and said that he would like to see the interest rate drop to 27.5 percent and inflation to half of the end-2024 levels.
Gains of the policies followed
Pointing to the gains of the economic policies followed, Aran said, “Reserves are increasing. The level of inflation distorting the income distribution is decreasing. It provides us with more playing field in the public sector. That’s why I support it.” Stating that the burden falls somewhat on the banks during the balancing process, Aran said, “If there is high inflation, I was in favor of inflation accounting. But we pay taxes without inflation accounting. Therefore, switching to inflation accounting brings two separate transactions. Under normal circumstances, we should switch to inflation accounting, but due to the tax situation…” he said.
‘There is a problem of not being able to make ends meet’
Stating that he did not want to get into the issue of minimum wage, Hakan Aran gave the message: “No matter what the increase is, it is an area where employers and minimum wage workers need to be supported and it is difficult to reach an agreement.”
Stating that income distribution has deteriorated and the problem of not being able to make ends meet has emerged, Aran said, “I can understand the problem of the minimum wage segment. On the other hand, there is the employer whose competitiveness has weakened. You are a politician who must be concerned about both growth, employment and voters; this is not an easy equation. In addition to the minimum wage increase, it should be supported by either the employer or the wage earner with the means of the state.
Minimum wage; He shared his opinion that “rent should be addressed with the issue of education and social expenditures.” At this point, when asked about his expectations for non-performing loan rates, Aran predicted that the individual NPL rate, which is based on 3 percent, could increase to 7 percent, and warned, “Individual NPL is alarming.”
‘I foresee an inherent risk’
Emphasizing that profitability is under pressure but not every year is a year of profit, Hakan Aran said, “If we have done something wrong as a country and set out to fix it, we will continue when it is corrected. 2025 will be difficult for the tourism sector and the banking sector. It is right that renewal investments should be made with variable interest rates.” “We think we can surpass this year by increasing the loan balance in the sector by 500 million dollars.”
Regarding the risks, Hakan Aran warned that he does not foresee any inherent risks specifically for 2025, but that there is a possibility that geopolitical problems will grow, and said, “It is the period when Israel suddenly attacked Lebanon. The world thinks we are Israel’s neighbors. It takes time to even explain Turkey’s place on the map. Again.” “Ukraine… While we are trying to establish our own internal balances, I do not see any internal risks other than external geopolitical developments,” he concluded his words.
‘We should not fall into the trap of saying ‘If banks give you a loan, you can own a house’
Answering the questions about housing loans, Hakan Aran said, “Banks are institutions that act as intermediaries. If I invent an invention at the cost at which I received the money, it would be far from reality. We should not put the citizens in wrong expectations and push the responsibility to the other side; if the banks give it to you, you can own a house, etc.”
Whoever suffers from inflation complains about it
When I asked Hakan Aran where he stands when it seems that household and market participation are competing regarding the expected inflation, he answered my question as follows: “When I say expected inflation, I mean the one announced by TÜİK. I said my expectation is 42 percent. In the survey, but I am in the household class.
An optimistic household, though. If I expect 42 percent and it turns out to be 44 percent, then I have my expectations in the right place according to the data announced by TUIK. Ultimately, we reduce inflation to one rate, but rent is different, tourism is different, restaurant is different, market is different… For the household, if they spend their life in the supermarket, they look at the food inflation there, as long as it is what they expect… We should not make an evaluation just by looking at the headlines. “The evaluator complains about whatever he suffers from the most… That’s why expectations diverge.”
‘I am also a tenant, I left the house’
Answering a question about rents, “I am also a tenant. I had the same problem. I had to leave the house,” İş Bank General Manager Aran said: “This is such a pathetic situation that at least half of the salaries we pay as an employer are paid.” At best, there is a possibility that it is going to be rented. This is what happens when you move further away, not in the neighborhoods you are accustomed to due to your social status. Whatever we pay, it is not enough to buy land in the earthquake zone, where there is no healthy housing and housing prices have increased. “We started building housing for our employees.”
The story can be written thanks to ‘fair sharing’
When asked what kind of story Turkey will write, considering Turkey’s national income that will reach 1.3 trillion dollars, Hakan Aran said, “There are many stories to be written. We can share 1.3 trillion dollars more fairly and increase it to 2 trillion dollars. The part of how the national income is distributed is more important.” “Unless you do this, there is no policy success at home,” he said.
Source: www.dunya.com
