Scientific analysis prevails in the face of overwhelming reality: We will live with more floodswith more extreme weather events and with heat waves and prolonged droughts. Francisco Doblas has been disseminating this evidence for years from the UN panel of climate change experts using the most powerful technology at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.
We spoke with him in Seville while the mud continues to cover Valencia and the counting of victims does not stop. He cannot avoid a harsh tone, “the meteorological services had already warned of what was going to happen days ago.” Doblas highlights the extreme accuracy provided by the services of prediction, “this Dana was already evident”.
But the tone darkens when talking about the measures adopted in the face of meteorological evidence, “unfortunately, politicians have not been up to the task and do not know how to manage,” he says at an event scheduled for weeks ago on the causes and impacts of the anthropogenic climate changeat the University of Seville.
Doblas confirms that “storms like the ones experienced will get worse, and the economic sectors and political powers have already had this information for a long time and with extreme accuracy,” he explains, referring to the 6 UN reports; Doblas is considered one of the most influential scientists from Spain. He has participated in the last two reports of the UN IPCC, the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Change that brings together 721 scientists from around the planet, 17 of them Spanish.
In addition, Doblas leads research with ‘MareNostrum’, one of the most powerful supercomputers in Europe with which they carry out simulations based on the effects of greenhouse gases on land and sea surfaces. Now, they will analyze what happened with this DANA, measuring what this storm would have been like at the beginning of the 20th century in comparison to current atmospheric conditions, “it allows us to think about how these can be expressed.” extreme events in the near future”.
The investigations into Doblas’ meteorological behavior patterns are “a posteriori, like an autopsy.” He is quick to emphasize that DANAS cannot yet be attributed to climate change, “whoever claims it is lying.” To attribute this fact to climate change, it is necessary to establish scientific analyzes and processes, because Science is “the best support” for making decisions.
One of the conclusions that is reliable at this point is “human guilt” in the evolution of climate change in the last 2,000 years and, especially, in the last 70 years. Given this, “we need quick and immediate reduction measures – emissions -” because the reality is that the average temperature in the western Mediterranean has already risen 2ºwhen the global rise is 1.2º.
The harsh reality of the Mediterranean arc
We often think of climate change as something that will affect the Polynesian islands or the polar ice caps. But we live in mediterranean arc, special exhibition area. The Mediterranean is another point of interest in the IPCC analyzes because it is at a latitude north of the subtropics that is warming, but where precipitation is decreasing, something unusual on the planet.
Mediterranean societies are experiencing an increase in temperature “above the global average, the increase is almost double and in addition, we have a decrease in precipitation and an increase in intense precipitation phenomena”, that is to say. Prolonged droughts and terrible DAMAGES: we must get used to it.
But Doblas, accustomed to navigating between turbulent currents such as political administration and scientific resolutions at the UN, highlights “the lack of collaboration” that exists in the Mediterranean between European countries and, above all, with the southern Maghreb coast, there is the drama of storm Daniel in Libya, “there the signal of expression of climate change is much stronger.”
Living with climate change
The researchers’ discourse may seem distant from the drama that we are suffering at this point, but it must be attended to in order to adopt coexistence measures. If floods will become more frequent, we cannot continue to ignore that reality in urban planningbecause “the changes are widespread, rapid and increasingly intense, and that is something unprecedented in thousands of years,” says Doblas. Ignoring climate change – much less denying it – is not an option.
It is necessary to adapt territorial planning, in 2021 alone, according to the Flood Risk Management Plans, there were almost a thousand schools, 45 hospitals and even 2.7 million Spaniards residing in flood-prone areas.
Practices such as building in flood-prone areas, on the banks of rivers, removing riverbank vegetation that stops runoff, occupying dune fronts on the coast… are normalized practices throughout the Spanish Mediterranean that multiply the risks.
If climate change will cause more DAMAGE – regardless of whether this case is attributable to climate change – we can point out that our changes in the territory aggravate meteorological phenomena.
Doblas reminds that worrying phenomena are inevitable, “extreme events will be more frequent” and that means in our Mediterranean region more droughts or more heat waves, “In a city like Seville, the 41º temperatures that predominate in heat waves today will reach 50º by mid-century.” The coastline, according to IPCC calculations, will also be affected. Sea level will rise 40 centimeters in a century and, Doblas emphasizes, our coastline is not ready for this reality.
Faced with this reality, Doblas proposes simple solutions that are validated by their application in other regions of the world, “it is difficult for me to understand why in Andalusian cities there are no more roofs with solar panels, the positive effect of self-consumption on adaptation has been demonstrated.”
Source: www.vozpopuli.com
