Economists from the Competitiveness Forum estimate that the economy will grow between 1.6% and 1.7% this year as a wholestating that it will be extremely difficult for the economy to grow at the pace defined by the Government for 2024.
After the economy was very close to stagnation in the third quarter, growing just 0.2%, the Competitiveness Forum announced this Tuesday, November 5th, that it estimates that the GDP rises between 1.6% and 1.7% in the year as a whole.
Although I admit that preliminary indicators for the fourth quarter that are already known are “favorable”, the Competitiveness Forum emphasizes that it will be “extremely difficult for 2024 growth to be 1.8%”, as predicted by the Government.
According to economists’ accounts, for this to happen, chain growth of at least 1.1% in the fourth quarter would be necessaryin line with what Negócios wrote at the end of last week (the accounts, without rounding, pointed to a chain growth of 1.3%).
Now for next year, the Competitiveness Forum estimates that the economy will grow “above 2%”.
Escalation of protectionism in the USA harms Portugal
In the economic note released this Tuesday, the last day of the North American elections, The Competitiveness Forum says the outcome in the US “could bring an escalation of protectionism, with very negative direct effects on Europe“.
These effects will also be felt in Portugal, warns the Forum for Competitiveness. Economists remember that the USA has become the fourth destination for Portuguese exportsbeing one of the most dynamic: “in 2023 they grew 3.3%, when the total fell (-1.4%) and until August 2024 they rose 13.3%, well above the total (3.3%)”, they describe .
“I.e, It will be especially negative for our exports – and for our GDP – if we see a significant increase in protectionism“, they warn.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
