According to analysts, who say that the course of the US and Chinese economies, as well as geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East, are decisive on the direction of global markets. While expectations for a ‘soft landing’ of the economy in the US continue to remain strong, concentrated company balance sheets increase stock and sector-based volatility.
Noting that finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world will meet in Washington this week for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, analysts said that the news flow from this meeting may also have an impact on the direction of the markets. On the macroeconomic data side, the number of new housing starts in the USA decreased by 0.5 percent in September. The number of construction permits issued in the country also decreased by 2.9 percent on a monthly basis in September.
Statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic…
While the statements of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are also being followed, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he will be patient in reducing interest rates so that inflation does not remain above the 2 percent target.
Pointing out that inflation should return to the target, Bostic said, “I do not want us to come to a point where inflation stops because we have not been restrictive for long enough, so I will be patient and let the data show us how inflation is progressing and how employment is progressing.” he said. Bostic noted that the Fed’s policy rate will probably be in the range of 3-3.5 percent towards the end of 2025. On the corporate side, Netflix’s shares, whose net profit exceeded expectations, gained more than 11 percent.
While it continues to be seen as certain in the pricing in the money markets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points next month, the bank is expected to make a total reduction of 50 basis points in the two meetings to be held until the end of the year.
The barrel price of Brent oil started the day with an increase
While a horizontal trend is effective in the bond markets, the US 10-year bond interest is currently at 4.08 percent. The dollar index started the week at 103.5. The ounce price of gold continued its upward trend with the expectation that central banks will continue to reduce interest rates and geopolitical risks, and reached a record high of 2 thousand 732.9 dollars in the new week. On the other hand, with the escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the ounce price of silver tested the highest level since November 2012 at $ 34.11.
While the barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 1.8 percent on Friday and closed at $72.9, today it is at $73.2 with an increase of 0.4 percent.
Bircoin is at the highest level since July 2024
The price of Bitcoin stabilized above $69,100 after testing $69,485 and seeing its highest level since July, as Donald Trump appeared ahead in critical states in the US presidential election polls.
On Friday, the Dow Jones index gained 0.09 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.40 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.63 percent in the New York Stock Exchange. Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices renewed their closing records. In the USA, index futures contracts started the new week with an increase.
Positive trend in European stock markets except the UK
According to data released in the region, retail sales in the UK increased by 0.3 percent in September, exceeding expectations. The expectation was that retail sales would fall 0.3 percent. Construction production in the Eurozone increased by 0.1 percent in August compared to the previous month.
According to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters published on Friday, participants revised downward their economic growth expectations in the Eurozone next year. Accordingly, annual harmonized inflation in the Eurozone was announced as 2.4 percent for this year and 1.9 percent for 2025 and 2026. Compared to the survey results for the third quarter, there was no change in the inflation forecast for the last quarter, while a 0.1 point downward revision in the forecast for next year was noted.
Analysts noted that confidence across the region that inflation will drop to the ECB’s targeted level has increased, and said that signals of stagnation in economic activity continue to exist. With these developments, on Friday, the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 0.38 percent, the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.39 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.47 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK gained 0 percent. 32 lost value. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with a limited increase.
Steps are being taken to revitalize the real estate and credit markets in Asia
On the Asian side, a buying-oriented trend is observed in the new week, excluding Hong Kong, due to the positive effects of China’s lowering of loan interest rates.
A 25 basis point reduction each was announced in 1 and 5-year loan interest rates (LPR), which serve as the benchmark interest for corporate loans and real estate loans in China. According to the statement made by the National Interbank Fund Center, the 1-year loan interest rate was reduced from 3.35 percent to 3.1 percent, and the 5-year loan interest rate was reduced from 3.85 percent to 3.6 percent. The interest rate decision aims to revive the real estate and credit markets against the contraction in the real estate sector and to ease the burden on individuals and businesses. Analysts stated that this decision also increased optimism regarding future incentive measures. Stating that loan interest rates were reduced within the expected ranges and that it was not a surprise, analysts said that with this decision, risk appetite may increase in Asian markets, especially in China.
Election week in Japan…
On the other hand, the Japanese yen gained value against the dollar on the first trading day of the week ahead of the Japanese parliamentary elections planned to be held on Sunday. According to polls, it is estimated that the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito may fall below the 233 seats required for a parliamentary majority in the ruling coalition. With these developments, the dollar/yen parity is at 149.2 with a decrease of 0.2 percent.
Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.1 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.7 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 0.7 percent, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.9 percent.
August international PPI data is on Turkey’s agenda
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a selling trend in the country on Friday, finished the day at 8,793.61 points, losing 2.32 percent in value compared to the previous closing.
While Dollar/TL closed at 34.2589 with a 0.4 percent increase on Friday, today it is traded at 34.2787 in the interbank market, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that today the data agenda will be calm in the country and that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Germany and the leading indicators index in the USA will be followed abroad. Technically, 8,710 and 8,500 points in the BIST 100 index are support, and 9,000 and 9,100 levels are resistance. He noted that it was.
Source: www.dunya.com
