Global warming had a significant impact on the extreme rainfall that affected Central Europe in September 2024. Climate change has practically doubled the likelihood of such extreme weather events and increased the intensity of rainfall by at least 7%.
A study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) focused on the episode of heavy rain that occurred in mid-September when Storm Boris stalled over Central Europe, causing devastating flooding in Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The floods resulted in loss of life and significant property damage.
“These floods show how costly climate change is becoming,” study co-author Maja Vahlberg said, according to The Guardian.
“Even with days of preparation, the floods still devastated cities, destroyed thousands of houses”
“Even with days of preparation, the floods still devastated cities, destroyed thousands of homes and prompted the European Union to pledge €10 billion in aid.”
The researchers used climate models to compare the current scenario with a world in which the global temperature would have been 1.3°C lower – the level of warming caused by human activities so far. The results showed a clear increase in the risk of extreme precipitation.
The study warns that the situation could become even worse in the future. If the global temperature rises by 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the intensity of rainfall could increase by another 5% and the probability of such events could increase by 50% compared to today.
Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and co-author of the study, points out the disproportionate impact of these seemingly small increases: “Almost everywhere in the world it happens that a small increase in precipitation leads to a similar increase of an order of magnitude , of floods. But this leads to a much greater increase in damage.”
Experts recommend urgent adaptation measures, including improving flood defences, early warning systems and disaster response plans. They also warn against rebuilding in flood-prone areas.
Source: www.descopera.ro
