Good COP or bad COP? Find out about the big climate meeting

SOCIETY

Now the UN climate meeting COP29 begins in Baku, Azerbaijan. These are some of the things to keep an eye on.

1. Who will pay – and how much?

The big issue at COP29 is climate finance – the money rich countries have to pay to help poorer countries tackle climate change.

In 2009, rich countries committed to providing $100 billion a year in climate finance by 2025. When the financing is now to be renegotiated, the parties are far apart. There is no agreed sum, no agreement on where the money should come from, to whom it should go or to what.

Several developing countries believe that 1,000 billion dollars per year are needed to sharpen their emission reduction targets. The US and the EU also want more countries to contribute with support, such as the oil-rich Gulf states and China – which the latter do not agree with.

There are fears that the issue will be so difficult to resolve that the meeting cannot be concluded in time.

2. Good COP or bad COP?

There is criticism that the climate meeting is once again being held in a country whose economy is based on fossil fuels.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has also been clear that he thinks gas and oil-producing countries like his should continue to invest in that sector – something that sits badly with the COP28 agreement on a faster phase-out of fossil fuels.

The fact that the country does not impress in human rights issues is also put in the negative account. It is unclear what space will be given for the environmental movement’s traditional demonstrations in connection with the meeting.

3. Who is coming?

In the first days, a summit meeting is held between world leaders, but this year many stay at home. Neither European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, outgoing US President Joe Biden nor France’s Emmanuel Macron will come to Baku. Nor does Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

Many are saving up to put their energy into COP30 in Brazil next year, where new national climate commitments (NDC) are to be established.

COP28 broke records in the number of participants, but COP29 looks set to be sparsely attended. Around 50,000 are expected to come to Baku, compared to 70,000 in Dubai.

4. In the shadow of Trump

Less than a week before the climate meeting starts, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, something that will overshadow the meeting.

During his last term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement. Joe Biden brought the US back in, but Trump has promised that the US will go out again. There is concern that momentum in the climate transition will be lost unless other countries step forward and fill the gap after the United States.

The election of Trump seems to make the American delegation, which belongs to Joe Biden’s administration, virtually behind bars.