Despite major efforts and progress in the development of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, demand for coal looks set to remain fairly stable through 2024 and 2025, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
During 2023, world coal consumption experienced growth of 2.6 percent, reaching record highs. The most populous countries in the world, China and India, have significantly contributed to this trend, given that they are the largest global consumers of coal. The increase in demand was fueled by the lack of hydropower production and a significant increase in the need for electricity.
The forecast presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the demand for electricity will grow by about four percent in 2024, compared to 2.5 percent in 2023. The increase in demand for electricity of four percent is the global average, however, the world’s largest economies will especially record growth. As stated, an increase of eight percent is expected in India in 2024, and more than six percent in China.
These circumstances have pushed these countries to rely more on coal to meet their current energy needs, especially in the power generation and industrial sectors.
For 2024, IEA forecasts show that global demand for coal will remain at a similar level due to the continued expansion of renewable energy sources. In China, the recovery of hydropower production, together with the rapid increase in capacity from solar and wind power plants, is expected to be reflected in the slowdown in the growth of coal consumption.
However, the significant projected growth in electricity demand of 6.5 percent in 2024 suggests that a reduction in coal consumption is not yet in sight. Similarly, in India, coal demand surged in the first half of the year due to low hydro output and a big jump in electricity demand driven by heat waves and economic growth, but demand growth is expected to slow as weather conditions normalize.
In contrast to these trends, in Europe and the United States there is a decrease in the demand for coal. Europe continues to reduce coal use, driven by efforts to reduce emissions in electricity generation. After the consumption of coal in the European Union was reduced by more than 25 percent in 2023, it is expected that there will be a similar decline in 2024. In the United States, although the overall trend shows a decline, stronger demand for electricity and a slower transition from coal to natural gas may slow this decline.
On the supply side, global coal production is expected to decline slightly in 2024 after a period of steady growth. Production adjustments in China and efforts to increase coal production in India reflect different approaches being taken in different regions. In addition, although there was a reduction in imports in Europe and Northeast Asia, global coal trade reached record levels. Countries like Vietnam stand out as the new big importers, offsetting reductions elsewhere.
Energy portal
Source: energetskiportal.rs
