If in January 2020, shortly after finishing his term as president of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIREF), Jose Luis Escriva Belmonte (Albacete, December 5, 1960), had he opted to be elected governor of the Bank of Spain (BdE), many of us would have applauded the intention. Not all, of course, because there are those who coincided with the current minister in one of his previous professional positions and perhaps would not have reacted with such enthusiasm.
There was no point, because the governor’s post already had an owner. Pablo Hernandez de Cos He had been appointed in June 2018 and still had four years of activity ahead of him in the old Alcañices Palace. After his forced resignation on June 11, the general opinion on the work carried out in these six years by the outgoing governor agrees in highlighting his professionalism and his scrupulous respect for the Law of Autonomy of the Bank of Spain, which in its explanatory statement establishes the requirement that, “in the area of monetary policy, the Bank is not subject to instructions from the Government or the Minister of Economy and Finance”.
Can a president whose fiscal path is being thwarted appoint the governor of the Bank of Spain without any support other than that of his own free will? He can. And unless he is given a severe warning from Brussels or Frankfurt, he will try.
The management carried out by Hernández de Cos has been decisive in improving the image of the BdE, an aspect that is not minor since this reputational leap also reflects on Spain’s credit. For this reason alone, given the obvious risk that a bad choice could lead to a deterioration of the country’s prestige, Pedro Sanchez He should rule out as soon as possible a new institutional colonization by appointing a member of his government as governor of the Bank of Spain. Especially if we are talking about someone who has been characterized by an unexpected sectarianism and a very questionable management, hardly compatible with the recommendations of the European Central Bank.
An uncomfortable document
The fundamental difference between Hernández de Cos and Escrivá is that the former leaves the BdE with a reinforced reputation, and tomorrow could be a credible Minister of Economy, while the holder of the portfolio of Digital Transformation has squandered in recent years the prestige he accumulated in the AIREF. As president of the Fiscal Authority, Escrivá did not hesitate to point out the budgetary mismanagement and the increase in the deficit of public administrations. As minister, he has systematically justified more than heterodox economic policy decisions that have exacerbated the vulnerability of the Spanish economy – starting with a debt that has increased to stand in recent years more than 30 points above the Eurozone average. And without making significant progress on any of the structural problems that hinder the progress of our country and about which the BdE warned again in its latest report. annual report.
The former president of AIREF, Escrivá, could have been a good governor of the Bank of Spain. Regarding the former minister, if we look at the trail left by his most recent career, there is a legitimate suspicion that his arrival at the headquarters of the former Banco Nacional San Carlos would be accompanied by an increase in government supervision of banking entities, a factor that is more closely linked to the regeneration plan planned by the Government than it seems at first glance.
With Escrivá, the aim is not to reach a consensus, but to keep the banking lords on a tight leash – even tighter – and turn the Bank of Spain into a new extension of the Presidency of the Government.
In the document recently published by the Bank of Spain on the challenges of our economy, the need to regain confidence in institutions, in free fall since the outbreak of the financial crisis, is stressed as “a fundamental determinant of long-term growth.” Hernández de Cos, in his farewell letter The former governor of the bank did not hide his concern about a trend that, largely fuelled by a depressing climate of political confrontation, confirms a reality very different from that propagated by the Government: “Spain – writes the former governor – has been unable to achieve sustained convergence in per capita income with the rest of our European partners for over a decade. Reversing these trends will require ambition and major political agreements.”
Hernández de Cos bursts the balloon (the rocket) of government euphoria and Escrivá seems to be the chosen one to rewrite an inopportune and unpleasant story that warns about the existence of new pockets of vulnerability and the increase of citizens at risk of poverty or social exclusion. An uncomfortable truth and antagonistic to the argument of the progressive government. With Escrivá, consensus is not sought, but to keep the lords of the banks on a short leash – even shorter – and to turn the Bank of Spain into a new extension of the Presidency of the Government. Who appoints the governor? Well, that would already be it..
Can a president whose fiscal path is being thwarted appoint the governor of the Bank of Spain without any support other than that of his own free will? He can. And unless there is a severe warning from Brussels or Frankfurt, there is no doubt that he will try.
Source: www.vozpopuli.com
