Hezbollah’s ‘unconditional ceasefire’ draws global attention

Hezbollah, a Lebanese armed political faction, is attracting global attention by mentioning the possibility of ceasefire negotiations without mentioning the preconditions that it has proposed so far. Expectations for a ceasefire are being stimulated with the observation that it is a compromise that was pushed out by Israel’s offensive, but there is a cautious opinion that it is currently unclear whether actual negotiations will even take place.

According to major foreign media on the 9th, Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Naeem Kassem, said in a video speech the previous day (local time) that he supported the political activities led by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in the name of a ceasefire.

Kassem also said, “Once a ceasefire is reached and a diplomatic forum is opened, other details can be discussed.”

As such remarks were interpreted as remarks with ceasefire negotiations in mind, international oil prices, which had soared due to worsening tensions in the Middle East, plummeted.

Major foreign media outlets interpreted Kassem’s remarks as leaving room for ceasefire negotiations, saying it was unclear whether the existing position that military activities would not stop without a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip had changed. They analyzed that the possibility of a change in Hezbollah’s position had been detected even before Kassem’s remarks that day, and that this may have been because Israel’s offensive was difficult to handle.

A Lebanese government official, who requested anonymity, told Reuters that Hezbollah changed its position because it was unable to withstand the pressure from Israeli airstrikes, including the large number of refugees in southern Lebanon, where Shiites mainly reside.

Since last month, Israel has expanded the scope of its airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon, the border area where it has been engaged in combat, to the vicinity of the capital Beirut and the city center. The ground battle is also being expanded, including the continued deployment of division troops in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah’s stronghold.

Even within Lebanese politics and Hezbollah, there is talk that Hezbollah has no choice but to explore the possibility of a ceasefire due to the power of Israel. According to major foreign media, Lebanese politician Suleiman Franzier said, “(Hezbollah’s) priority is to stop Israel’s offensive.”

The U.S. government also pointed out that Hezbollah’s mention of a ceasefire shows that it has suffered a significant blow. Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said in a briefing that day that the mention of a ceasefire shows that Hezbollah’s position has become unfavorable.

However, because Hezbollah did not explicitly state that it had changed its position and Israel is not interested in a diplomatic solution, it is unlikely that ceasefire negotiations will make any progress immediately.

Some say it is too late to create diplomatic momentum. A diplomat working in Lebanon pointed out that Israel’s dominant logic is now military rather than diplomatic. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, said Israel was able to gain the upper hand by increasing military pressure on Hezbollah. “Hezbollah is trying to play politics, but it is not enough for Israel and it will not work that way.” did it

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