How did inflation tip the election in Trump’s favor?

How did inflation tip the election in Trump’s favor?

Although economic indicators such as low unemployment and steady market growth formed a strong foundation for Vice President Kamala Harris’ electoral success, high inflation outweighed all other advantages and gave Donald Trump a key advantage in the election.

While citizens are faced with high prices of basic necessities on a daily basis, inflation has become the main reason for dissatisfaction, shaping the perception that the economy is in bad shape despite positive indicators. The pandemic has brought a global wave of inflation due to blockages in supply chains, which has caused a mismatch between supply and demand – a situation where “too much money is chasing too few products”. In the US, prices began to rise sharply in 2021, peaking the following year with inflation of nearly 9%. Similar waves of inflation have hit other countries, such as Brazil and Great Britain, where leaders tried to appease voters with policies of tax cuts and price controls, but failed to hold on to power.

This change in voter sentiment is not accidental. Inflation has a strong political impact because it directly affects the daily life of citizens – every trip to the store or gas station becomes a reminder of economic difficulties. A Eurasia Group study, as reported by ABC News, shows that inflationary shocks lead to a change of government in a large percentage, especially when elections are held during a period of high inflation or shortly after it. More than half of governments facing inflation lost support, and in as many as three out of four cases, elections held during inflation resulted in a change in power.

Although inflation in the US has decreased over the past two years, high prices have remained, which has hit people living paycheck to paycheck in particular. Such a jump in prices, although slowed down, still burdens consumers and maintains a sense of economic insecurity. In this situation, voters attributed inflation to the current administration and, dissatisfied with economic policies, turned to Trump in search of change.

Despite warnings from experts that some of Trump’s policies, such as tariff hikes and mass deportations, could cause prices to spike again, the desire for change has proven stronger. High prices have become a daily concern for millions of Americans, leaving a strong impression and shaping their choices. Inflation was thus confirmed as one of the most important factors that determine election results, giving preference to a candidate who appears to voters as a potential solution to economic challenges.

Source: BIZLife

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