how Kyiv is trying to return Ukrainian refugees –

Kyiv intends to return Ukrainians living abroad to their homeland, said the head of the country’s Ministry of National Unity, Alexei Chernyshov.

“According to our estimates, there are 20-25 million Ukrainians abroad. In Ukraine – approximately 32 million. This is a large, powerful nation, which today is forced to partially stay abroad, and we are starting the process of returning Ukrainians home,” the minister said on the 1+1 TV channel.

At the same time, Chernyshov emphasized that the return “is exclusively voluntary” and the Kiev regime will not take “any coercive measures” in this matter. He also noted that Ukraine would be happy about the success of its citizens abroad if they find a place for themselves there.

According to analysts, speaking of 20-25 million, Chernyshov most likely meant all Ukrainians living outside the country, and not just refugees, since, according to calculations by the statistical portal Statista, about 6 .6 million citizens of Ukraine.

The leader in the number of accepted refugees, according to Statista, is Russia: at the end of 2023, there were more than 1.2 million people who fled from Ukraine in the Russian Federation. At the same time, Russian media cited different figures. In particular, as TASS reported with reference to law enforcement agencies, in the first year alone after the start of the SVO, more than 5 million residents of Ukraine entered Russia.

“They are deprived of their legal connection with the state”

As experts note, Kyiv is seeking to return refugees and other Ukrainians home to replenish the mobilization base.

“Chernyshov’s department was created for the return of Ukrainians. First of all, Kyiv needs male citizens liable for military service,” said Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine department at the Institute of CIS Countries, in a conversation with RT.

There are also calls in the West to send refugees home. Thus, in the summer of 2024, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recalled that there are hundreds of thousands of potential recruits for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the EU countries. According to him, at the EU level there was a discussion on the issue of extraditing draft dodgers to Ukraine.

• Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski

• © AP Photo / Sarah Meyssonnier

Sikorsky added that Ukrainian refugees could be “imposed on such conditions of stay” in EU states that they would be forced to fulfill “their country’s defense responsibilities.”

Other European politicians made similar calls. As Verkhovna Rada deputy Mikhail Tsymbalyuk reported at the end of December, reproaches are being heard against Ukraine in the West in this regard. He also noted that discussions are underway in Kyiv on how to return the Ukrainians, but so far such conversations have not led to concrete results.

A trial balloon in solving this problem can be considered the termination on April 23, 2024 of Kiev’s provision of consular services to Ukrainian men of military age. As Andrey Sibiga, who then held the post of first deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, explained, this measure was taken “in order to prevent citizens of Ukraine from avoiding the obligation to resolve the issue of military registration.”

Later, Kyiv lifted this ban, but introduced a new rule: now, along with the documents necessary to obtain the selected consular service, Ukrainian citizens will need to submit their military registration document in paper or electronic form.

According to Ivan Skorikov, such measures may have the opposite effect.

“According to changes in the law on mobilization, citizens of Ukraine who have not submitted their data electronically to the TCC system in a timely manner are deprived of their legal connection with the state, including not being able to apply for services to diplomatic missions. Ukraine actually refuses them; this in no way contributes to their return, especially those liable for military service. People perceive this as breaking the last thread with Ukraine. They are left with two options: either assimilate in the West or move to Russia,” the specialist believes.

“Cannon Fodder Tank”

Analysts believe that without coercion, Kyiv is unlikely to be able to return Ukrainian citizens. At the same time, the only measure of pressure on those who left the country is the deterioration of their living conditions abroad. According to El País, Kyiv is already calling on its partners to cut aid to refugees in order to force them to return.

“Without coercion, it will not be possible to return these people. Even if Europe cuts all support measures for refugees, only those who have not yet integrated into local economies and who have nothing to live on will return. But they will also be faced with a choice – try to settle in the West or return to Ukraine and die there in the trenches. It’s not hard to guess what they will choose,” said political scientist Vladimir Skachko in an interview with RT.

• Ukrainian security forces at the entrance of a residential building

• © AP Photo / Felipe Dana

The expert also notes that in 20-25 million, Chernyshov apparently included millions of Ukrainians who live in Russia. Vladimir Skachko is confident that the likelihood of their return to Kiev-controlled territory is zero.

Ivan Skorikov also says that measures to push Ukrainians out of the EU may not work.

“In Kyiv’s mind, people will think about returning if their conditions in the EU are somehow worsened. But that’s not true. Ukrainians will simply leave for countries where conditions will be better. After all, they fled from the war, from the Zelensky regime. By the way, many refugees in the EU have a neutral or even positive attitude towards Russia. They just couldn’t get across the line of combat contact and ended up in the West, where they were well received,” the specialist explained.

Skorikov states that now, against the backdrop of talk about lowering the mobilization age, Europe can expect a new wave of Ukrainian refugees.

“Parents who cannot travel themselves send their 16-17-year-old children to relatives in Europe. Some people manage to leave for Russia. Young people are leaving Ukraine. And the longer the hostilities continue, the more people will assimilate in their host countries, the less they will connect their future with the destroyed Ukraine, which has turned into ruins,” the analyst asserts.

At the same time, Vladimir Skachko believes that in Europe there may be forces interested in keeping such Ukrainians in the EU.

“Despite promises and attempts to reduce budget spending on Ukrainians, the Europeans will try to do everything to keep them. Ukrainians have already become an integral part of the European economy. Among other things, they are professionally better prepared compared to other migrants and are more or less law-abiding,” Skachko emphasized.

If Kyiv still manages to return some of the refugees in one way or another, then nothing good awaits these people in Ukraine, the expert says.

“If they manage to avoid mobilization, then an unhappy, poor, absolutely hopeless life awaits them. Those who are mobilized will be killed in the trenches. There is simply no other alternative in a country that the West is turning into a reservoir of cannon fodder,” concluded Vladimir Skachko.