how Russia will react to a possible resumption of nuclear weapons tests in the United States – Teller Report Teller Report in Russian

Russia is faced with the question of a possible resumption of nuclear tests against the backdrop of the US escalatory course, said Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov.

“This question stands,” the diplomat said in an interview with TASS. “And without predicting anything, I’ll just say that the situation is quite complicated.” It is constantly being considered in all its components and in all aspects.”

This is how Ryabkov answered a journalist’s question about whether Moscow allows the resumption of nuclear weapons tests in response to escalation by the United States.

The USSR last conducted nuclear tests in 1990. Since then, Moscow has not carried out such tests. However, in a message to the Federal Assembly in February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that “some figures in Washington… are already thinking about the possibility of natural testing of their nuclear weapons, including taking into account the fact that new types of nuclear weapons are being developed in the United States ammunition.”

The Russian leader stressed that Russia will respond to such actions by conducting similar tests.

“In this situation, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Rosatom must ensure readiness to test Russian nuclear weapons. We, of course, will not be the first to do this, but if the United States conducts tests, then we will conduct them too. No one should have dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed,” said Vladimir Putin.

That same year, the Russian parliament approved a bill to revoke Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

As the former head of the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Colonel General Vladimir Verkhovtsev, stated in a commentary to TASS on November 30, 2024, the test site on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is fully prepared for the possible resumption of nuclear weapons tests.

“From a technical point of view, the information already available (about nuclear weapons. – RT) is quite enough… But if this needs to be done from a political point of view, then the test site on Novaya Zemlya is ready to resume nuclear tests, this only requires a decision from the country’s leadership,” he emphasized.

“Building up the nuclear arsenal”

It is worth noting that the current democratic US administration, at the rhetorical level, opposes nuclear testing. Thus, Joe Biden, even during the 2020 election campaign, called a return to such tests a reckless and dangerous idea. According to him, the United States has not tested nuclear weapons since 1992 and there is no need to return to this practice.

After coming to the White House, Democrats declared support for the CTBT, but in fact did nothing to ratify it. Let us recall that the treaty was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1996, but since then it has not formally come into force, although it was signed by 187 states (ratified by 178).

The fact is that for the CTBT to enter into force, it must be ratified by 44 states listed in a special annex to the treaty. Of these countries, only 36 signatories ratified the agreement (in 2023, Moscow withdrew ratification). Of the remaining eight, India, North Korea and Pakistan did not join the treaty. Five more countries signed it but did not ratify it: the United States, China, Egypt, Israel and Iran.

Meanwhile, Republicans, who will soon replace Democrats in the White House and also have a majority in both houses of Congress, are not as cautious on nuclear technology, analysts say.

Thus, former Trump national security adviser Robert O’Brien this summer, in an article for Foreign Affairs, directly called for the resumption of nuclear weapons tests.

“The United States must maintain technical and numerical superiority over the combined nuclear arsenals of China and Russia. To do this, for the first time since 1992, Washington must test new nuclear weapons for reliability and safety in real conditions, and not just using computer simulations,” he wrote.

In turn, Marshall Billingsley, who served as Washington’s special envoy for arms control, commenting on the problems of extending START III during Trump’s first presidency, argued that Washington is ready for a new arms race in the nuclear sphere, although it allegedly does not strive for it.

“We know how to win these races. We also know how to force the enemy to selflessly spend all his funds. If we have to, we will do it, but we would like to avoid it. That’s why it’s a trilateral arms control agreement (the Trump administration insisted on China joining New START. – RT) to prevent a three-way race is so important,” he said in 2020.

According to analysts, after Donald Trump returns to the White House, US nuclear weapons policy may undergo changes.

“The Democratic Party, unlike the Republicans, is more sensitive to arms control. The Republicans, as we remember, have already withdrawn from many agreements in this area,” noted Konstantin Blokhin, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, political scientist and Americanist, in a conversation with RT.

Leading RISS expert Sergei Ermakov shares a similar opinion.

“Republicans have quite harshly criticized the Biden administration for allegedly ceding primacy in nuclear weapons. It can be assumed that the new conceptual documents that Trump will adopt will include additional measures to improve and build up the nuclear arsenal,” the specialist emphasized in a commentary to RT.

“Not the best example”

As noted in an article by the American Arms Control Association, a possible US return to nuclear testing would be a serious mistake.

“This could lead to a chain reaction around the world in the form of nuclear tests, increasing global tensions and undermining nonproliferation efforts at a time of heightened nuclear danger,” the authors of the article stated this summer.

Despite such warnings, Konstantin Blokhin does not rule out that the Trump administration may resort to resuming nuclear weapons testing.

“Under Trump, the United States can do this. One of the key elements of the Republican policy will be the modernization of the nuclear triad, so, most likely, the tests will be carried out,” the specialist believes.

This development of events will be another escalation on the part of the United States, states Sergei Ermakov.

“Of course, this will be a step towards escalating the nuclear arms race. At the same time, Moscow has already announced that our response will be mirrored,” the analyst added.

Konstantin Blokhin also spoke about the need for Russia to conduct retaliatory tests.

“It is obvious that we will also need to demonstratively show our strength and undergo these tests,” the political scientist believes.

The head of the Center for Military-Diplomatic Analysis and Assessments, Vladimir Vinokurov, holds a slightly different point of view. In his opinion, the resumption of nuclear tests in the United States is unlikely for now, since nuclear weapons tests will provoke third countries to similar actions, which is contrary to the interests of Washington.

“If we assume that such tests will be carried out, then this will not be the best example for other countries that are secretly trying to become members of the nuclear club. Therefore, in fact, such a development of events would be disadvantageous for both the United States and us,” the analyst concluded.