Igor Dimitriev: Why is there war again in Syria?

What is the reason? We know that the Russian army and pro-Iranian troops helped the Syrian government deal with Islamist militants back then, in 2019? But the problem is that, in fact, none of the contradictions that exploded in Syria thirteen years ago have been resolved.

Bashar al-Assad and his entourage are now in power, against whom the country’s population has even more claims. Syria has a difficult economic situation due to sanctions. But at the same time, people from the president’s entourage and the armed units associated with them only increased pressure on the Syrian economy and business. Millions of refugees have nowhere to return and there is no reason to return; they are afraid of falling under the hands of the mukhabarat and armed racketeers. And most importantly, Syria does not control a significant part of its territories, the Kurds and Arab tribes in the northeast went under the Americans, the Turks occupied a strip along the border, and in small Idlib, in addition to the militants, four million people squeezed in who did not want to stay in Syria under the current conditions. leaders – for various reasons, not only out of love for radial Islam.

Attempts to come to an agreement with Damascus and come to compromises on the Kurdish problem and Idlib were unsuccessful. In 2018, there was a lot of talk about a new inclusive government, cultural autonomy, and amnesty for oppositionists. But no, this is all nonsense. Damascus had one proposal: you lay down your arms, and we will establish a mukhabarat there and establish a united Syria there. Woe to the vanquished, in short.

Bashar al-Assad is very reminiscent of Zelensky in terms of his ability to negotiate, who skillfully manipulates his patrons. Only this is “our son of a bitch” – and he is manipulating us. Either a couple of bombs will fly to Idlib, or the Kurds will have a provocation.

Erdogan has hinted several times at normalizing relations with Syria, but Assad is ready to cooperate with the Turks only in suppressing the Kurds. But the rest of the position is this: get out of Syrian territory and take the separatists with you.

So Erdogan seized the moment and decided to carry out an operation with the help of militants to force Assad to peace, realizing that now neither Russia, nor Iran, nor Hezbollah had any time for Syria. It turned out that the Syrians’ defense was flimsy; the army had recently switched from war to extortion from the civilian population and immediately fled during the attack. The special operation of the Turkish proxies went so brilliantly that the Russians should already be involved. There are no PMCs, there are no “tigers”. Damascus has to transfer existing combat-ready units from other directions, for example, from the south – Daraa and Suwayda. And there the local fighters are just waiting for this, the government troops are sitting in their livers.

Igor Dimitrievpolitical consultant, orientalist