Interest rates on the rise in the US and the euro area – A look at inflation

In the US, government bond yields were in a downward trend earlier on Friday, but fell sharply after the release of the ISM industrial outlook and price indices.

The general ISM index of US industry fell from December to 49.3 points, the highest since March last year. The forecast compiled by Bloomberg expected an average of 48.2 points. In November, the index was at 48.2 points.

An improvement in the ISM index signals a pick-up in industry. At the same time, ISM’s Prices Paid index, which tells the industry’s views on the costs of raw materials and production inputs, jumped upwards, which may indicate inflationary pressures.

The ISM Prices Paid index reached 52.5 points from December, the highest in the whole year 2024. The last time the index was at the same readings was in May 2022. The index was expected to rise to 51.8 points from 50.3 points in November.

After half past six, Finnish time, the interest rate on the ten-year government bond of the United States was up 1.2 percentage points, and the interest rate on the two-year loan was rising by 1.0 percentage point.

Eurozone inflation figures will be published next week

At the time of the review, the interest rate on the German ten-year loan was up 3.2 percentage points, the interest rate on the two-year loan was up 5.7 percentage points.

The interest rate on the ten-year loan of France, the second largest economy in the euro area, was 4.8 percentage points higher, and the interest rate on its two-year loan was 5.6 percentage points higher.

Next week, the preliminary inflation figures for the entire euro area and its largest economies from December will be published.

According to preliminary data, consumer prices in Spain rose by 2.8 percent in December, while expectations were for a 2.6 percent increase. Inflation accelerated from the previous month, when prices rose by 2.4 percent.

At the end of the year, among other things, Spanish inflation figures were published: consumer prices rose by 2.8 percent in December, while expectations were for a 2.6 percent increase. Inflation accelerated from November, when prices rose by 2.4 percent.

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde note in connection with the most recent ECB interest rate meeting that although the direction of inflation may fluctuate in the coming months, in the big picture, the hard inflation spikes are behind us now.

However, the inflation figures of the euro area will be closely monitored in the market next week.

On the foreign exchange market, the dollar weakened against all but the Canadian dollar on Friday. The euro mainly strengthened.

At 5:43 p.m., you got 1.03 dollars and 11.44 Swedish kronor for the euro. The dollar cost 0.97 euros, 0.81 British pounds and 157.44 Japanese yen.

Source: www.arvopaperi.fi